401 Loma Linda · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1977 5,700 sqft lot $191/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take in beautiful Florida sunsets and stunning lake views from almost every room in this charming two-bedroom, two-bath home. The entryway offers both upper and lower cabinets for extra storage. The kitchen is spacious and includes newer cabinets, a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dishwasher. Next to the kitchen, the family room has a sliding door that opens to an acrylic-enclosed Florida room, which leads out to a covered patio. The dining room comes with a built-in hutch, and the living room, shaded by a front awning, has a sliding door to a large covered porch overlooking the lake. The guest bedroom has a double closet and direct access to the guest bath, which features a newer vanit

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Large covered porch
• Lake views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• ACRYLIC-ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Lease restrictions: none indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees $191 (total annual fees $2,292)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $191); Association approval required; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, fitness center, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, basketball court, recreation facilities, storage, private road, guard (24-hour), management, and common area maintenance; Senior community; Cats allowed; Buyer approval required; Special community restrictions; vehicle restrictions (no truck/RV/motorcycle parking)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community with 24-hour guard (included in association)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Make: Skyline
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Awning(s); Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Window treatments; Exhaust fan; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (17.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $92k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,703 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-33,715
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-56,768
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,981/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,921

Max offer price $106,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-95	+0% $-131	+5% $-168	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-201	+0% $-131	+5% $-62	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-98	base $-131	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12395 Chancellor Blvd Port Charlotte, FL	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,600	$1.59	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,981
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$3,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $-759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+234.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $91,500 Public Records
• 2006-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $38,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,981 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.