7974 Fowlie St · Houston, TX 77028

$228,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,592 sqft · Other · 391 Days on market

Built 2025 4,199 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $219k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stylish home features an open-concept layout 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths with gourmet kitchen with Quartz countertops, all appliances. and a spacious pantry. The Primary Suite located downstairs has bath en-suite with seperate tub and shower, double vanity and tile floors. Enjoy a private backyard with low-maintenance ideal for relaxing and those backyard bbq's, no HOA restrictions. Don't miss this opportunity! EXTRA SPACE CAN BE CONVERTED TO 4TH BEDROOM

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious pantry
• Private backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,906/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,550 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,084
• List price: $228,000
• Delta: 4.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $56,982
• Equity at exit: $132,611

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $155,167
• Equity at exit: $231,737

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,277/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $228,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $173	+0% $108	+5% $44	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $33	+0% $108	+5% $184	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $166	base $108	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7839 Sandy St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	0d	1	0.20mi
7956 Bonaire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,150	$1.44	44d	1	0.22mi
7956 Bonaire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,050	$1.37	0d	1	0.22mi
5415 Bacher St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,350	$1.53	25d	1	0.35mi
5415 Bacher St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,350	$1.53	44d	1	0.35mi
8161 Tate St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2184	$1,850	$0.85	44d	1	0.41mi
8117 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,335	$1.22	23d	1	0.46mi
8119 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	44d	1	0.46mi
8135 Chateau St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1610	$1,645	$1.02	12d	1	0.52mi
8158 Sunbury St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,525	$1.17	25d	1	0.59mi
7966 Henson St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,410	$0.88	44d	1	0.63mi
7947 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	6d	1	0.65mi
7945 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,665	$1.28	0d	1	0.65mi
7830 Nashville St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,800	$1.53	8d	1	0.71mi
7426 Miley St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$1,650	$0.79	25d	1	0.77mi
5426 E Houston Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,675	$1.04	0d	1	0.78mi
5217 E Houston Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,700	$1.06	0d	1	0.81mi
7973 Ritz St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,250	$2.09	8d	1	0.87mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,436	$1.41	15d	8	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,000 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 388 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 387 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 386 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 383 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $228,000 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $228,000 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $228,000 Active 374 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,000 Active 371 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Active 370 DOM
13. 2025-05-26
    listed $228,000 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This stylish home features an open-concept layout 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths with gourmet kitchen with Quartz countertops, all appliances. and a spacious pantry. The Primary Suite located downstairs has bath en-suite with seperate tub and shower, double vanity and tile floors. Enjoy a private backyard with low-maintenance ideal for relaxing and those backyard bbq's, no HOA restrictions. Don't miss this opportunity! EXTRA SPACE CAN BE CONVERTED TO 4TH BEDROOM

14. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,172 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,895/yr (+$241/mo · 226.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$1,277
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$627
• After-tax cash flow: $1,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-26 Listed $228,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,277 · +930.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.