405 Ashton Ln · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$295,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,776 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1993 2,000 sqft lot Est $348k · 15% under $76/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick front. 2 large bedrooms. 3 . 5 baths. Eat in kitchen with island, table space, pantry, stainless steel appliances. Primary bedroom has a full bath and walk in closet. Laundry chute. Fully finished basement features a full bath, family room, and an office/den. Fenced rear yard. Great location. Minutes to I95, shops and dining.

Key facts

• $76 HOA
• Built 1993
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ground rent paid annually
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $76.80 per month; Property manager present

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available; Municipal trash not provided; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in good condition; Year built (per assessor)
• Construction: Brick and aluminum siding construction; Asbestos shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Fully finished basement
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Porch(es); Deck(s); Rear wood fencing; Front yard; Rear yard; Landscaping; Backs to trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Oven/Range - Electric; Stove; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Electric heating fuel; Electric cooling fuel; Other cooling type
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Dining area; Kitchen with island and country-style elements; Kitchen with table space; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Master bathroom; Stall shower; Tub/shower combination; Laundry chute; Other
• Laundry & utility: Washer in unit; Dryer in unit; Laundry located on lower floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,813 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
455 Deer Hill Cir	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,768 (-0%)	3mo	$380,000	$215	82
330 Fullerton Pl	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,700 (-4%)	1mo	$315,000	$185	78
615 N Branch Ct	0.44mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,792 (+1%)	1mo	$335,000	$187	68
589 Kirkcaldy Way	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,710 (-4%)	1mo	$360,000	$211	66
3617 Longridge Ct	0.47mi	3/3.5	1,890 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$159	66
640 Nanticoke Ct	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,705 (-4%)	1mo	$299,000	$175	64
236 Lodgecliff Ct	0.29mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,565 (-12%)	2mo	$314,900	$201	58
518 June Apple Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+12%)	0mo	$352,000	$178	58
1903 Glenroths	0.48mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,940 (+9%)	1mo	$380,000	$196	56
618 Milford Ct	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-13%)	2mo	$330,000	$214	56
303 Talbot Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-13%)	2mo	$255,000	$166	50
3151 Eden Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,538 (-13%)	0mo	$310,000	$202	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-41,249
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,856
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,808/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,506

Max offer price $284,100

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $22	+0% $-62	+5% $-145	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-158	+0% $-62	+5% $34	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $13	base $-62	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
493 Ashton Ln Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	24d	1	0.03mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	24d	1	0.36mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	5d	1	0.36mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	44d	1	0.47mi
546 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,350	$1.55	44d	1	0.54mi
569 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2040	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.56mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	0.66mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	44d	1	0.82mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	1.08mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	1.11mi
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	24d	1	1.17mi
300 Cinnabar Ln Bel Air, MD	3.0	3.5	1887	$2,600	$1.38	44d	1	1.19mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	2d	29	1.33mi
617 Snapdragon Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	2519	$2,850	$1.13	18d	1	1.39mi
401 Darby Ln Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1930	$2,450	$1.27	24d	1	1.44mi
3406 Winter Moss Ct Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	2004	$2,300	$1.15	13d	1	1.44mi
442 Darby Ln Bel Air, MD	4.0	3.5	1442	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    status $310,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $310,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,012 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,808
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1140.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-30 Price Changed $305,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-28 Listed $289,333 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-21 Coming Soon $289,333 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $217,379 Public Records
• 2007-01-31 Sold (MLS) $217,379 MRIS
• 2007-01-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-09-03 Listed $224,900 MRIS
• 2006-08-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2002-01-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-12-17 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-08-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-08-14 Listed — MRIS
• 1997-02-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-08-16 Listed — MRIS
• 1993-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $119,750 Public Records
• 1992-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,808 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.