Walker Plan · Freeport, FL 32439

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Walker, new home floor plan now available in Ashton Park Phase III in Freeport, Florida. Offering 1,631 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home features three spacious bedrooms, two modern bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a blend of comfort and coastal style. Step through the inviting foyer into a seamless open-concept layout crafted for modern living. The heart of the home is a well-appointed kitchen boasting elegant quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a functional center island.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Shaker cabinetry
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER CABINETRY
• FUNCTIONAL CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $309,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $345,681.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-829 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1545 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,452 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.28%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,681
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -10.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Foxtrail Run	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	2mo	$293,411	$180	95
30 Foxtrail Run	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+4%)	1mo	$339,447	$201	91
135 Eunola Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-3%)	2mo	$330,140	$209	73
155 Eunola Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-3%)	3mo	$297,690	$188	72
275 Eunola Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-3%)	3mo	$309,900	$196	68
31 Foxtrail Run	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+14%)	4mo	$324,357	$175	65
266 Partridge Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-1%)	5mo	$340,000	$210	62
14034 N 331 Business	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+11%)	1mo	$1,200,000	$663	52
154 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite B20	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+7%)	7mo	$298,490	$171	52
165 Eunola Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+10%)	8mo	$329,900	$183	51
373 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A4	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+13%)	5mo	$321,490	$174	40
187 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A11	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+13%)	2mo	$334,985	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-111,917
• Equity at exit: $51,542

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-177,759
• Equity at exit: $29,888

Cash invested: $96,791 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $344,990 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1545
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,185/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-829

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,024

Max offer price $225,716

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-590	-5% $-710	+0% $-829	+5% $-948	+10% $-1,068
Rent	-10% $-985	-5% $-907	+0% $-829	+5% $-751	+10% $-673
Rate	-1.0pp $-655	-0.5pp $-741	base $-829	+0.5pp $-919	+1.0pp $-1,010

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,420
• Closing costs: $10,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
832 Whispering Creek Ave Freeport, FL	4.0	2.0	1398	$2,175	$1.56	162d	1	0.44mi
76 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	2.0	3.0	1128	$1,450	$1.29	10d	1	0.52mi
130 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,600	$1.20	10d	1	0.56mi
664 Whispering Creek Ave Freeport, FL	4.0	2.0	1398	$2,150	$1.54	38d	1	0.56mi
178 Whispering Creek Ave Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,550	$1.49	162d	1	0.59mi
178 Whispering Creek Ave Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,550	$1.49	6d	1	0.59mi
147 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,595	$1.08	162d	1	0.59mi
29 S Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1198	$1,550	$1.29	51d	1	0.61mi
29 S Sand Palm Rd #24 Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1197	$1,550	$1.29	50d	1	0.61mi
246 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,650	$1.12	162d	1	0.63mi
259 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,600	$1.20	162d	1	0.64mi
68 S Sand Palm Rd #38 Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1128	$1,525	$1.35	2d	1	0.65mi
416 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,795	$1.21	2d	1	0.65mi
267 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,650	$1.11	10d	1	0.66mi
90 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,675	$1.17	10d	1	0.66mi
81 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,795	$1.21	51d	1	0.66mi
318 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,525	$1.04	10d	1	0.68mi
318 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,525	$1.14	0d	1	0.68mi
303 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1396	$1,550	$1.11	31d	1	0.69mi
15284 331 Business Unit 1C Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1174	$1,450	$1.24	10d	1	0.69mi
328 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,725	$1.17	51d	1	0.69mi
338 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,750	$1.15	10d	1	0.70mi
202 Date Palm Ln Unit 1 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1396	$1,750	$1.25	29d	1	0.70mi
359 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1396	$1,600	$1.15	41d	1	0.71mi
151 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,775	$1.20	154d	1	0.72mi
328 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,650	$1.11	49d	1	0.72mi
328 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,650	$1.11	17d	1	0.72mi
356 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,650	$1.24	51d	1	0.72mi
15284 U.S. 331 Business Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,600	$1.44	8d	1	0.73mi
15284 U.S. 331 Business Freeport, FL	2.0	3.0	1106	$1,400	$1.27	162d	1	0.73mi
156 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$2,300	$1.61	1d	1	0.73mi
156 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$2,300	$1.61	162d	1	0.73mi
15284 331 Business Unit 10E Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,550	$1.40	10d	1	0.73mi
15284 331 Business Unit 7B Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,650	$1.49	51d	1	0.74mi
15284 331 Business Unit 7D Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,600	$1.44	5d	1	0.75mi
15284 331 Business Unit 6B Freeport, FL	2.0	2.5	1174	$1,495	$1.27	2d	1	0.75mi
245 Pine St Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,000	$1.46	162d	1	0.77mi
202 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1512	$1,750	$1.16	51d	1	0.77mi
276 Date Palm Ln Unit 276 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,650	$1.24	10d	1	0.78mi
10 Oakfield Dr N Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,350	$1.81	10d	1	1.03mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Walker)New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 11 Chipmunk Trl, Freeport FL 32439

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,631 finished)Plan: Walker

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $309,900 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $309,900 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $309,900 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $309,900 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $309,900 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $309,900 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $309,900 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $309,900 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $309,900 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $309,900 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,900 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $309,900 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $309,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    price $309,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $340,900 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $340,900 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $340,900 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $340,900 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $340,900 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $340,900 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $340,900 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $340,900 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $340,900 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $340,900 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    pricedays on market $340,900 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $337,900 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $337,900 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $337,900 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $337,900 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $337,900 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $337,900 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $337,900 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $337,900 Active 135 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $337,900 Active 134 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $337,900 Active 133 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $337,900 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $337,900 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $337,900 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $337,900 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $337,900 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $337,900 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    price $337,900 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $334,900 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $334,900 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $334,900 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $334,900 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $334,900 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $334,900 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,363
• − Property taxes: −$5,185
• − Insurance: −$1,728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$10,056
• Taxable loss: −$16,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,943
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mossy Head School B FL #525/2,144 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Freeport Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Walton High School C- FL #154/667 Nat'l #4,948/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 80,014 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Walker)New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 11 Chipmunk Trl, Freeport FL 32439

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,631 finished)Plan: Walker