7264 S Gray Jay Dr · Rincon Valley, AZ 85747

$349,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2025 5,493 sqft lot Est $365k · at est. $84/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Coral floorplan in Tucson, AZ is a stylish single-story home featuring a covered patio off the great room. Enjoy white cabinets, white/gray granite countertops, travertine-look tile, and warm neutral carpet in our Cozy package. Located in Rincon Crest at Rocking K, a new master-planned community in Vail offering five floorplans and access to top-rated Vail School District. Amenities include pickleball courts, playgrounds, and a splash pad. Move-in ready with washer, dryer, fridge, and whole-home blinds. Built with innovative, energy-efficient features for lasting comfort.

Key facts

• 5,493 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 120 x 40; Zoned Pima County - CR1
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (available); Community tennis courts, paved streets, sidewalks, street lights, walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; County road responsibility
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Smart panel; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Block fencing; Decorative gravel and shrubs; Subdivided lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows; Exhaust fan; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-563/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Rincon Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#160 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocotillo Ridge Elementary (math 79% / reading 77%, grade A, #19 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 652 students, 17% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $265,147 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7264 S Gray Jay Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,602 (0%)	1mo	$345,510	$216	95
7286 S Gray Jay Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,602 (0%)	1mo	$369,840	$231	93
7281 S Gray Jay Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,602 (0%)	2mo	$365,840	$228	93
7323 S Gray Jay Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,602 (0%)	1mo	$370,840	$231	91
7292 S Gray Jay Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-8%)	1mo	$342,500	$233	75
7299 S Gray Jay Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-8%)	1mo	$349,350	$238	73
13029 E Pine Siskin Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,631 (+2%)	2mo	$354,940	$218	72
13028 E Pine Siskin Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,631 (+2%)	1mo	$354,940	$218	71
13010 E Black Stilt Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-9%)	2mo	$349,940	$241	56
13148 E Reg Morrison Way	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,837 (+15%)	2mo	$373,190	$203	47
13166 E Reg Morrison Way	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,837 (+15%)	2mo	$368,742	$201	46
13154 E Reg Morrison Way	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+14%)	1mo	$383,840	$209	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-67,438
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-93,114
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85747

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $340,711

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $52	+0% $-47	+5% $-146	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-152	+0% $-47	+5% $58	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $42	base $-47	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13154 E Apex Mine Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1745	$3,200	$1.83	45d	1	0.73mi
7720 S Rocking K Ranch Loop Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$2,705	$2.25	3d	1	0.74mi
7880 S Bonanza Park Dr Tucson, AZ	5.0	3.0	1939	$2,500	$1.29	5d	1	0.75mi
8042 S Golden Bell Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,895	$1.37	45d	1	0.99mi
13142 E Cembeline Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,195	$1.18	5d	1	1.09mi
13466 E Joseph Mills Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2138	$2,200	$1.03	5d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $84 · $1,008/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $349,000 Active Contingent 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $349,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,320/yr (+$110/mo · 134.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,545
• − Management: −$2,545
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$6,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rincon Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #18098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,753
• Household income: $110,816
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 197.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.04%
• Current HPI: 250.6404
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $349,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-13 Sold (MLS) $345,510 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $358,840 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $363,840 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $368,840 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $371,840 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $372,840 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $370,840 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $371,840 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-29 Listed $369,840 MLSSAZ