1880 Circulo Mexicali · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2024 0.26 ac lot $142/sqft · 17% below area Est $272k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This barely lived in home is ready for new owners! This home has a wonderful split floor plan that is very popular in the area. There is a great room open floor plan that will make entertaining and general living a breeze. You will love the upgraded light fixtures as well as the granite counters throughout the kitchen and baths and the stainless appliances in the kitchen. There is a covered patio in the back too. Do not miss this great home! Best of all VA Vendee financing may be available on this property, It is open the Veterans, Non-Veterans and investors alike.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Stainless appliances
• Covered patio

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT ROOM OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPGRADED LIGHT FIXTURES
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-640/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,048 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,519
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -17.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1884 Circulo Colombia	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-0%)	3mo	$250,000	$158	78
144 Calle Victoria	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-0%)	1mo	$255,000	$161	76
1868 Atajo Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$189	75
1832 Via Nevada	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-4%)	2mo	$265,000	$173	70
1791 Fritz Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-2%)	3mo	$210,000	$136	69
1847 Circulo Glorieta	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+5%)	1mo	$287,500	$173	61
324 Peru Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-8%)	3mo	$252,000	$172	60
1866 Circulo Girasol	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-14%)	3mo	$230,000	$168	58
1902 Circulo Colombia	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-8%)	4mo	$250,000	$170	58
1848 Rosalia Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,357 (-14%)	2mo	$258,000	$190	57
1801 Saltillo Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	4mo	$225,000	$161	46
1797 Benecia Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-12%)	4mo	$235,000	$167	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $119,061
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $353,222
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,848

Max offer price $215,485

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1859 Tijuana Ct Rio Rico, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	1d	1	0.18mi
1878 Circulo Girasol Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,700	$1.07	1d	1	0.20mi
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	10d	1	0.86mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	1d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   This barely lived in home is ready for new owners! This home has a wonderful split floor plan that is very popular in the area. There is a great room open floor plan that will make entertaining and general living a breeze. You will love the upgraded light fixtures as well as the granite counters throughout the kitchen and baths and the stainless appliances in the kitchen. There is a covered patio in the back too. Do not miss this great home! Best of all VA Vendee financing may be available on this property, It is open the Veterans, Non-Veterans and investors alike.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $224,900 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   This barely lived in home is ready for new owners! This home has a wonderful split floor plan that is very popular in the area. There is a great room open floor plan that will make entertaining and general living a breeze. You will love the upgraded light fixtures as well as the granite counters throughout the kitchen and baths and the stainless appliances in the kitchen. There is a covered patio in the back too. Do not miss this great home! Best of all VA Vendee financing may be available on this property, It is open the Veterans, Non-Veterans and investors alike.

3. 2026-03-19
   listed $236,000 Active 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   This barely lived in home is ready for new owners! This home has a wonderful split floor plan that is very popular in the area. There is a great room open floor plan that will make entertaining and general living a breeze. You will love the upgraded light fixtures as well as the granite counters throughout the kitchen and baths and the stainless appliances in the kitchen. There is a covered patio in the back too. Do not miss this great home! Best of all VA Vendee financing may be available on this property, It is open the Veterans, Non-Veterans and investors alike.

4. 2025-06-19
   historical
5. 2025-06-16
   listed $265,000 Active
6. 2025-05-20
   historical $2,000
7. 2025-04-19
   listed $2,000
8. 2025-03-22
   historical $2,200
9. 2025-02-06
   soldstatus $288,077
10. 2025-01-18
    listed $2,200
11. 2024-11-07
    historical $2,150
12. 2024-11-01
    price $2,150
13. 2024-10-29
    price $2,300
14. 2024-10-27
    price $2,400
15. 2024-10-25
    listed $2,500
16. 2024-06-14
    status Pending
17. 2024-06-14
    soldstatus $279,990 Closed
18. 2024-06-14
    soldstatus $279,990 Closed
19. 2024-05-27
    status Pending
20. 2024-05-27
    historical Active Contingent
21. 2024-04-09
    listed $279,900 Active
22. 2024-04-08
    listed $279,900 Active
23. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+399.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $224,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-19 Listed $236,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-19 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-16 Listed $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-20 Rental Removed $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-04-19 Listed for Rent $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-03-22 Rental Removed $2,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $288,077 Public Records
• 2025-01-18 Listed for Rent $2,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-11-07 Rental Removed $2,150 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $2,150 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $2,300 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $2,400 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-25 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-14 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) $279,990 ARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) $279,990 MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-05-27 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-09 Listed $279,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-08 Listed $279,900 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,241 · +1686.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.