420 N Stardust Ln · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 2004 Fair condition 5,500 sqft lot $147/sqft · 19% above area Est $139k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

'On Leased Land'. This three bedroom two bath home with open floor plan is move in ready and comes furnished except for washer and dryer. Huge back yard with a nice size storage building. Completely fenced for privacy. Located in a guard gated community, with a pool, clubhouse, beach area , and launch ramp on the river. Monthly lease payment is $91.00.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan

Tags

• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained paved road; Zoned MH (Manufactured Home Overlay)
• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: 220 volt electric; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Faces north; Frame construction
• Construction: Shingle roof; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Wood privacy fencing in back yard; River access; Community view; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Solid surface counters (entry location listed includes counters - solid surface)
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Wall/Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.55%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,226
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 18.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
471 Bluewater Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	0mo	$124,900	$103	82
324 N Misty Lane Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	11mo	$105,000	$91	80
427 Bluewater Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-10%)	2mo	$163,000	$161	79
236 N Moonlight Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	1mo	$134,000	$116	77
476 E Riverfront Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (0%)	9mo	$150,000	$134	75
408 N Misty Ln	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (0%)	15mo	$120,000	$107	75
423 Paradise Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-6%)	13mo	$105,000	$100	74
425 Bluewater Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,018 (-9%)	7mo	$267,000	$262	71
452 E Riverfront Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	8mo	$289,000	$232	67
338 E Riverfront Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+7%)	21mo	$250,000	$208	57
314 N Moonlight Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	7mo	$50,000	$52	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,604
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $37,975
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $165,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $172,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $172,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,900 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $172,900 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $172,900 Active 886-char remark
19. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus $150,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    'On Leased Land'. This three bedroom two bath home with open floor plan is move in ready and comes furnished except for washer and dryer. Huge back yard with a nice size storage building. Completely fenced for privacy. Located in a guard gated community, with a pool, clubhouse, beach area , and launch ramp on the river. Monthly lease payment is $91.00.

20. 2021-03-31
    listed $155,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    'On Leased Land'. This three bedroom two bath home with open floor plan is move in ready and comes furnished except for washer and dryer. Huge back yard with a nice size storage building. Completely fenced for privacy. Located in a guard gated community, with a pool, clubhouse, beach area , and launch ramp on the river. Monthly lease payment is $91.00.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$691
• After-tax cash flow: $4,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and improve the landscaping. The home is located in a desirable community with amenities, but the current condition limits its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor bathroom cabinets — dated design
• Minor landscaping — bare yard

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen
• Resale update bathroom cabinets — modernizing bathroom
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · bare yard	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom cabinets — modernizing bathroom ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+6.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $165,000 WARDEX
• 2026-04-24 Listed $172,900 WARDEX
• 2021-10-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 LHAR
• 2021-03-31 Listed $155,000 LHAR