350 Lucia Way · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$133,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,049 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Houston El Norte Prop Assoc.; HOA dues $120 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Construction: Cement siding; New construction by Lennar
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Under construction (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $133,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $165,266.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $129,970 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,266
• List price: $133,990
• Delta: -18.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
385 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,049 (0%)	1mo	$170,991	$163	99
382 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-2%)	0mo	$156,990	$152	97
1023 Road 5606	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	1mo	$199,000	$166	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,564
• Equity at exit: $24,642

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,831
• Equity at exit: $14,289

Cash invested: $46,274 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$867
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$207 /mo · $2,479/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $165,266

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $206	+0% $149	+5% $92	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $84	+0% $149	+5% $214	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $191	base $149	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,316
• Closing costs: $4,958
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	2d	1	0.63mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	16d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $133,990 Pending 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,990 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

3. 2026-06-17
   price $133,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,590 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,590 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,590 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,590 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,590 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,590 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,590 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $143,590 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,590 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,590 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,590 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,590 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $146,090 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

17. 2026-05-07
    listed $146,090 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,257
• − Property taxes: −$2,479
• − Insurance: −$826
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,808
• Taxable loss: −$885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $2,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern, single-level home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a well-maintained interior, exterior, and landscaping, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $133,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $133,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $143,590 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $143,590 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $146,090 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $146,090 HARMLS