5407 Mac Arthur Ave · Elfers, FL 34652

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1967 5,400 sqft lot Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome Home! Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, ideally situated just 2.5 miles away from the vibrant downtown of New Port Richey, With SIMS Park (So many fabulous Festivals there). Amazing restaurants, shopping, and clubs. Did I mention New Port Richey Is a Golf cart friendly town. This stunning home is 1,070 square feet of living space; it is a true gem. Enjoy the ease of access to shopping and beaches, creating a lifestyle that combines relaxation and entertainment. What sets this property apart is its lack of HOA or deed restrictions, and NOT in a flood zone. Allowing you the freedom t

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• Lack of hoa
• Tiki bar

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• TIKI BAR
• LACK OF HOA
• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE
• GOLF CART FRIENDLY TOWN
• ADVANCED UV FILTRATION SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,070 square feet; Lot on asphalt road; Furnished negotiable
• HOA & community: No association; Street lights in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South facing; Homestead property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.12-acre lot
• Exterior features: Lighting; Private mailbox; Shade shutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water purifier; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Window treatments; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-612/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mittye P. Locke Elementary School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 491 students, 89% FRL); Gulf Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 901 students, 83% FRL); Gulf High School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,465 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $215k implies a 641% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,275 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5407 Mac Arthur Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,070 (0%)	0mo	$213,000	$199	93
4445 Spring Lake Ct	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,025 (-4%)	3mo	$200,000	$195	80
4526 Annette St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,132 (+6%)	4mo	$210,000	$186	73
5753 10th Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,088 (+2%)	2mo	$259,900	$239	70
5205 Drift Tide Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,044 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$216	69
4437 Terry Loop	0.39mi	2/1.5	1,180 (+10%)	2mo	$211,000	$179	61
4607 Pirate Pl	0.39mi	2/1.0	960 (-10%)	4mo	$150,000	$156	57
4407 Terry Loop	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,206 (+13%)	2mo	$119,340	$99	56
5646 Dahlia Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,212 (+13%)	6mo	$195,000	$161	56
5203 Overton Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,128 (+5%)	1mo	$235,000	$208	55
4615 Irene Loop	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (-8%)	4mo	$189,950	$192	48
4173 Highland Loop	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+14%)	4mo	$243,400	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,641
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-54,386
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $205,989

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $10	+0% $-51	+5% $-112	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-112	+0% $-51	+5% $10	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $4	base $-51	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	26d	1	0.14mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.14mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.16mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.17mi
4746 Azalea Dr Apt 103C Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,220	$1.21	26d	1	0.19mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,085	$1.47	0d	1	0.21mi
4747 Azalea Dr #208 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,200	$1.06	19d	1	0.23mi
4548 Belfast Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	19d	1	0.27mi
4554 Nimmer Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	16d	1	0.32mi
5720 Salt Kettle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$900	$0.64	19d	1	0.34mi
4938 Azalea Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$2,000	$2.30	26d	1	0.37mi
4737 Alcea St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,250	$1.77	4d	1	0.38mi
5319 Drift Tide Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,500	$1.31	12d	1	0.38mi
5227 Tangerine Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	996	$1,500	$1.51	14d	1	0.43mi
5403 Tangerine Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	962	$1,750	$1.82	1d	1	0.43mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	14d	1	0.50mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,648	$1.57	18d	3	0.55mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	26d	2	0.55mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	3d	2	0.55mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	1d	1	0.58mi
4645 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	1d	1	0.59mi
4616 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	898	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	0.62mi
4540 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,550	$2.02	26d	1	0.63mi
4721 Naftis Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	14d	1	0.68mi
5197 Silent Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	5d	1	0.71mi
5197 Silent Loop #124 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	26d	1	0.71mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	5d	1	0.72mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	16d	1	0.72mi
5132 Amulet Dr #107 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	928	$1,395	$1.50	14d	1	0.73mi
5154 Turquoise Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,250	$1.77	6d	1	0.74mi
4854 Marine Pkwy #103 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	26d	1	0.76mi
4847 Elmwood St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1039	$1,595	$1.54	0d	1	0.77mi
6036 Chesham Dr #5 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,275	$1.55	6d	1	0.80mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 102-I New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	26d	1	0.84mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 2 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,750	$1.33	16d	1	0.84mi
4944 Elkner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	23d	1	0.84mi
6141 Chesham Dr #8 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,250	$1.52	26d	1	0.87mi
4948 Getner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	26d	1	0.88mi
4852 Pompano Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,900	$2.63	26d	1	0.88mi
4753 Marine Pkwy Unit 4753 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $215,000 Active
3. 2023-09-22
   status Pending
4. 2023-09-22
   historical
5. 2023-09-12
   listed $236,000 Active
6. 2022-09-14
   listed $236,000 Active
7. 2010-11-12
   soldstatus $29,000
8. 2010-10-20
   listed $29,999
9. 2007-12-14
   listed $84,877
10. 2007-12-14
    historical
11. 2007-09-24
    listed $94,877
12. 2003-11-07
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,247/yr (+$104/mo · 231.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+198.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-12 Listed $236,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-14 Listed $236,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-12 Sold (MLS) $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-20 Listed $29,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-14 Listed $84,877 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-24 Listed $94,877 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $538 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.