240 Liberty St · Batavia, NY 14020

$15,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1935 $11/sqft · 92% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Building lot Public water and sewer Natural Gas Nice area of the city. Directly across from a park and near a school. Asking $15,000 or best offer. Thanks

Key facts

• Building lot
• Public sewer
• Across from a park

Tags

• BUILDING LOT
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• NATURAL GAS
• ACROSS FROM A PARK
• NEAR A SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 94.2% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $192/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 94.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 314.07%
• DSCR: 14.97
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,844
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -91.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7-9 Kibbe Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,386 (-1%)	7mo	$225,000	$162	86
17 Williams St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+4%)	5mo	$290,000	$200	69
245 S Swan St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-7%)	14mo	$148,000	$114	66
3 Otis St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,416 (+1%)	20mo	$150,000	$106	66
35 Central Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,342 (-4%)	17mo	$42,000	$31	63
6 Garfield Ave	0.08mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,240 (-11%)	5mo	$230,000	$185	60
23 Elmwood Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-14%)	19mo	$146,450	$121	55
315 School St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,351 (-3%)	14mo	$140,500	$104	55
154 Jackson St	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,556 (+12%)	9mo	$155,000	$100	54
21 Buell St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,466 (+5%)	5mo	$144,000	$98	54
109 Evans St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (+10%)	16mo	$18,000	$12	40
10 Prune St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-8%)	19mo	$40,000	$31	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.21×
• Total profit: $55,474
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.35×
• Total profit: $123,279
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14020

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $351/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$192 /mo · $2,309/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $388

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $911	+0% $907	+5% $903	+10% $898
Rent	-10% $785	-5% $846	+0% $907	+5% $968	+10% $1,028
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $911	base $907	+0.5pp $903	+1.0pp $899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Main St Unit 2 Batavia, NY	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	3d	1	0.64mi
224 State St Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	3d	1	1.30mi
10 Woodstock Gdns Unit 10 Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	3d	1	1.37mi
115 Woodstock Gdns Unit 115 Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	11d	1	1.41mi
219 N Spruce St Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $15,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $15,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $15,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $15,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $15,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-05-12
    listed $15,000 Active 154-char remark
12. 2025-04-03
    soldstatus $52,569

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$351
• − Insurance: −$2,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $11,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,753
• After-tax cash flow: $8,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Batavia City School District
• NCES district ID: 3603990
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,288
• Composite: 37.13/100
• National rank: #4490
• State rank: #477 of 590 in NY

Livability — Batavia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #9660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Batavia, NY
• County: Genesee County · 22,002 people
• City population: 22,002
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,002
• Household income: $62,655
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.58%
• Current HPI: 263.2147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,569 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · -33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.