1221 Parkway St · Baytown, TX 77520

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1948 8,019 sqft lot $147/sqft · 8% below area Est $158k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New roof coming soon!! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with carport parking. New wood look laminate throughout. Fresh paint, new front door, new blinds, updated double pane windows, and updated kitchen cabinets. Stainless steel refrigerator and gas appliances. Large backyard at the end of dead end street. Railroad tracks are not active. You need to see this one!!

Key facts

• Carport parking
• New front door
• New blinds

Tags

• CARPORT PARKING
• NEW FRONT DOOR
• NEW BLINDS
• UPDATED DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ashbel Smith El (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 582 students, 90% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 61% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 9900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $145k implies a 480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,066 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,274
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -8.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 Parkway St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	930 (-6%)	0mo	$170,000	$183	72
708 N Circle Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+7%)	0mo	$189,990	$180	69
1205 S Alexander Dr	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,103 (+12%)	13mo	$199,990	$181	63
304 Daniel St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+2%)	22mo	$99,500	$99	59
408 S 7th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,007 (+2%)	22mo	$189,900	$189	54
605 Denby St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,016 (+3%)	13mo	$85,000	$84	53
317 Briarwood Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,052 (+7%)	21mo	$157,770	$150	52
209 Graham St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,022 (+4%)	18mo	$145,000	$142	52
110 E Pearce St	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+7%)	14mo	$135,000	$128	51
1004 Sunset Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,116 (+13%)	17mo	$187,000	$168	48
300 W Cleveland St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,094 (+11%)	23mo	$172,000	$157	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-40,793
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-62,650
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,906/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $102,066

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-202	+0% $-243	+5% $-284	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-288	+0% $-243	+5% $-198	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-206	base $-243	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
211 E Sterling Ave Unit 1 Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	45d	1	0.61mi
211 E Sterling Ave Unit 2 Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	26d	1	0.61mi
301 Tri City Beach Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	45d	1	0.67mi
612 W Texas Ave Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$975	$1.49	3d	4	0.83mi
105 E Adoue St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.90mi
508 Forrest St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	7d	1	1.20mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,599	$2.29	4d	5	1.40mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	45d	1	1.41mi
1305 Memorial Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	845	$1,193	$1.41	26d	3	1.46mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    historical $1,450
15. 2026-04-19
    price $145,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    New roof coming soon!! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with carport parking. New wood look laminate throughout. Fresh paint, new front door, new blinds, updated double pane windows, and updated kitchen cabinets. Stainless steel refrigerator and gas appliances. Large backyard at the end of dead end street. Railroad tracks are not active. You need to see this one!!

16. 2026-03-07
    listed $1,450
17. 2026-03-06
    price $155,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    New roof coming soon!! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with carport parking. New wood look laminate throughout. Fresh paint, new front door, new blinds, updated double pane windows, and updated kitchen cabinets. Stainless steel refrigerator and gas appliances. Large backyard at the end of dead end street. Railroad tracks are not active. You need to see this one!!

18. 2026-02-08
    price $160,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    New roof coming soon!! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with carport parking. New wood look laminate throughout. Fresh paint, new front door, new blinds, updated double pane windows, and updated kitchen cabinets. Stainless steel refrigerator and gas appliances. Large backyard at the end of dead end street. Railroad tracks are not active. You need to see this one!!

19. 2026-01-21
    listed $165,000 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    New roof coming soon!! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with carport parking. New wood look laminate throughout. Fresh paint, new front door, new blinds, updated double pane windows, and updated kitchen cabinets. Stainless steel refrigerator and gas appliances. Large backyard at the end of dead end street. Railroad tracks are not active. You need to see this one!!

20. 2026-01-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    New roof coming soon!! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with carport parking. New wood look laminate throughout. Fresh paint, new front door, new blinds, updated double pane windows, and updated kitchen cabinets. Stainless steel refrigerator and gas appliances. Large backyard at the end of dead end street. Railroad tracks are not active. You need to see this one!!

21. 2025-10-28
    price $164,900
22. 2025-10-15
    price $169,900
23. 2025-09-25
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2022-01-06
    soldstatus
25. 2009-07-15
    soldstatus
26. 2009-07-14
    soldstatus
27. 2009-06-29
    historical
28. 2009-06-06
    listed $55,000
29. 2005-06-27
    soldstatus
30. 1996-05-09
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,906 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,906 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,906
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,098
• − Management: −$1,098
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$5,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-94.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Rental Removed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-06-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-06-06 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2005-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,906 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.