20605 Birch Pl · Ocean Park, WA 98640

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1980 7,405 sqft lot Est $284k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Near the quiet shores of Klipsan Beach, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy relaxed coastal living on Washington’s scenic peninsula. Situated on a spacious 7,000+ sq ft lot.

Key facts

• Coastal living
• Spacious lot
• Klipsan beach

Tags

• KLIPSAN BEACH
• COASTAL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, Rehab Loan

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 covered space
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Electric power
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Built (effective) in 1980; Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove / free-standing
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Stove / free-standing; No cooling system
• Interior features: Detached single-family residence; One-level living; Electric as primary energy source; Stove / free-standing heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Park Elementary (196 students, 76% FRL); Hilltop Elementary School (236 students, 70% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $189k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $176,810 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,400
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20819 Birch Pl	0.16mi	2/1.5	768 (+7%)	11mo	$303,500	$395	71
1202 207th St	0.69mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	16mo	$280,000	$389	54
1107 204th Ln W	0.73mi	2/2.0	728 (+1%)	13mo	$364,900	$501	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,904
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $677
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98640

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,518/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $254	+0% $200	+5% $147	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $131	+0% $200	+5% $270	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $248	base $200	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    remarks 214-char remark
15. 2026-06-04
    listed $189,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,518 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$334/yr (+$28/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥74°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,518
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$174
• After-tax cash flow: $2,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,107

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.15%
• Current HPI: 222.8758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+112.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $189,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-31 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-19 Listed $88,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,518 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.