Fourplex
4624 Newport Ave · St. Louis, MO
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,054 – $1,958
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.3/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.4/10.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.2/10.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$310,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
— Four family income producing property in Prime Tower Grove South — Opportunity for value-add investment — Professional management in place — Spacious, recently remodeled 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units, averaging 816 sq. ft. — Large kitchen and dining area — Full-masonry brick facade in traditional South City St. Louis architectural style — Recent Capital Expenditures includes upgraded electric, HVAC, stacks, and roof replaced in 2024 — Off-street parking — Great location, just minutes from Tower Grove Park and South Grand
Key facts
- Value-add investment
- 4,830 sq ft lot
- Built 1925
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $310k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $271/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $310k).
- Recommended offer: $282k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,831/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1923% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 38894% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
- Current owner paid $233k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.24% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.49%
- Cash-on-cash
- 15.00%
- DSCR
- 1.67
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $246,723
- List price
- $310,000
- Delta
- 25.65%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3923 Dunnica Ave | 0.65mi | 4/4.0 | 3,330 (+2%) | 17mo | $299,900 | $90 | 52 |
| 4258 Schiller Pl | 0.46mi | 2/2.0 | 3,168 (-3%) | 19mo | $70,000 | $22 | 50 |
| 3927 Dunnica Ave | 0.65mi | 4/4.0 | 3,400 (+4%) | 17mo | $299,900 | $88 | 48 |
| 4026 Bates St | 0.60mi | —/— | 3,536 (+8%) | 12mo | $250,000 | $71 | 48 |
| 3938 Chippewa St | 0.67mi | 4/4.0 | 3,128 (-4%) | 19mo | $179,900 | $58 | 46 |
| 3923 Keokuk St | 0.60mi | 4/4.0 | 3,060 (-6%) | 20mo | $240,000 | $78 | 45 |
| 3928 Dunnica Ave | 0.62mi | 4/4.0 | 2,958 (-9%) | 14mo | $260,000 | $88 | 43 |
| 3660 Neosho St | 0.69mi | 5/4.0 | 3,400 (+4%) | 22mo | $249,900 | $74 | 43 |
| 4234 Dewey Ave | 0.75mi | 4/4.0 | 3,536 (+8%) | 18mo | $194,900 | $55 | 36 |
| 5600 Morganford Rd | 0.56mi | 2/1.0 | 3,120 (-4%) | 23mo | $299,000 | $96 | 35 |
| 3931 Keokuk St | 0.59mi | 16/16.0 | 3,668 (+12%) | 12mo | $90,000 | $25 | 22 |
| 3620-3626 Morganford (4-family) | 0.74mi | 7/7.0 | 2,800 (-14%) | 10mo | $369,000 | $132 | 22 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 5.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.20×
- Total profit
- $17,352
- Equity at exit
- $46,222
- IRR
- 14.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.13×
- Total profit
- $97,890
- Equity at exit
- $26,803
Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Missouri
- 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 63116
- Rents YoY
- 2.6%
- Active inventory
- 260
- Price-to-rent
- 27.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,831 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,626
- Tax from tax record
- −$187 /mo · $2,239/yr
- Insurance
- −$129
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$805
- Net cashflow
- $1,085
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,261 | -5% $1,173 | +0% $1,085 | +5% $997 | +10% $910 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $782 | -5% $934 | +0% $1,085 | +5% $1,236 | +10% $1,388 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,241 | -0.5pp $1,164 | base $1,085 | +0.5pp $1,005 | +1.0pp $923 |
4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4× units | 1 | 1 | $3,832 |
| #1 | 1 | 1 | $958 |
| #2 | 1 | 1 | $958 |
| #3 | 1 | 1 | $958 |
| #4 | 1 | 1 | $958 |
| Total (4 units) | $3,831 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $77,500
- Closing costs
- $9,300
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3807 Potomac St Saint Louis, MO | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2588 | $1,100 | $0.43 | 44d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 3807 Potomac St Saint Louis, MO | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2588 | $1,300 | $0.50 | 8d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 3653 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2050 | $1,350 | $0.66 | 2d | 4 | 1.09mi |
| 5042 Pernod Ave Saint Louis, MO | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2870 | $900 | $0.31 | 44d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 755 Dover Pl Saint Louis, MO | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2750 | $1,000 | $0.36 | 44d | 1 | 1.29mi |
Listing history 29 events
-
2026-06-10status $310,000 Pending 116 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $310,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $310,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $310,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $310,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $310,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $310,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $310,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $310,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-04-21historical $795
-
2026-04-08$795
-
2026-02-13$310,000 Active 580-char remark
Show marketing remark (580 chars)
— Four family income producing property in Prime Tower Grove South — Opportunity for value-add investment — Professional management in place — Spacious, recently remodeled 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units, averaging 816 sq. ft. — Large kitchen and dining area — Full-masonry brick facade in traditional South City St. Louis architectural style — Recent Capital Expenditures includes upgraded electric, HVAC, stacks, and roof replaced in 2024 — Off-street parking — Great location, just minutes from Tower Grove Park and South Grand
-
2026-02-13historical $310,000 580-char remark
Show marketing remark (580 chars)
— Four family income producing property in Prime Tower Grove South — Opportunity for value-add investment — Professional management in place — Spacious, recently remodeled 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units, averaging 816 sq. ft. — Large kitchen and dining area — Full-masonry brick facade in traditional South City St. Louis architectural style — Recent Capital Expenditures includes upgraded electric, HVAC, stacks, and roof replaced in 2024 — Off-street parking — Great location, just minutes from Tower Grove Park and South Grand
-
2025-06-16price $282,900
-
2025-06-02price $284,900
-
2025-05-11price $289,900
-
2025-04-24price $299,900
-
2025-04-03price $304,900
-
2025-03-20$319,900 Active
-
2020-07-17soldstatus $232,900
-
2020-07-13soldstatus Closed
-
2020-06-17status Pending
-
2020-06-04historical Active Under Contract
-
2020-05-28status Active
-
2020-05-21historical Active Under Contract
-
2020-04-30$232,900 Active
-
2012-12-11soldstatus
-
2005-02-02soldstatus $189,000
-
2003-03-07soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $2,239 · $187/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,007 · $251/mo
- Expected delta
- +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 34.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $45,972
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,365
- − Property taxes
- −$2,239
- − Insurance
- −$1,550
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,678
- − Management
- −$3,678
- − Depreciation
- −$9,018
- Taxable income
- $8,445
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,027
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,994/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- St. Louis City
- NCES district ID
- 2929280
- Math proficiency
- 10% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 18% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $35,685
- Composite
- 11.54/100
- National rank
- #9699
- State rank
- #312 of 324 in MO
Livability — St. Louis
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- St. Louis, MO
- County
- Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
- City population
- 283,259
- Metro
- St. Louis, MO-IL
- Population (ZIP)
- 42,170
- Household income
- $61,433
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1923.0
Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 315,737 people
- By 2030
- 313,865 · -0.6%
- By 2040
- 305,439 · -3.3%
- By 2050
- 296,529 · -6.1%
- By 2075
- 271,028 · -14.2%
- By 2100
- 255,359 · -19.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 54% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
- Languages at home
- 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Arabic 2%
Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -271.19%
- Current HPI
- 215.7108
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.62%
- Metro
- St. Louis, MO-IL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.84%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 1 | $163B |
|
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| Insurance | 1 | $21B |
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| Industrial Technology | 1 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $16B |
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $10B |
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| Utilities | 1 | $9B |
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Price history
+64.0% since first listed20 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-21 Rental Removed $795 SHOWMOJO
- 2026-04-08 Listed for Rent $795 SHOWMOJO
- 2026-02-13 Listed $310,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-02-13 Coming Soon $310,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-06-16 Price Changed $282,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-06-02 Price Changed $284,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-05-11 Price Changed $289,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-04-24 Price Changed $299,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-04-03 Price Changed $304,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-03-20 Listed $319,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $232,900 Public Records
- 2020-07-13 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-06-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-06-04 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-05-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-05-21 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-04-30 Listed $232,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2012-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2005-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
- 2003-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+4.7%/yrLatest (2024): $2,239 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…