488 Messer Branch Rd · Hazard, KY 41701

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with the potential for a 4th bedroom, conveniently located at Hazard on a spacious 0.70-acre lot with scenic mountain views! This move-in ready property offers approximately 1,060 square feet of comfortable living space and has been extensively updated throughout. Recent improvements include a new metal roof, new plumbing, fresh interior paint, and all new floor coverings, giving the home a clean, modern feel while maintaining its cozy charm. The flexible floor plan provides plenty of options for a growing family, home office, or guest space.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New plumbing
• Spacious lot

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW PLUMBING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOOR COVERINGS
• SCENIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Not in a subdivision
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Storage structure on property; Approximately 0.7 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Bedrooms:
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Cooktop; Laminate flooring; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazard Independent (town): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hazard High School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 277 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,882
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,378
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41701

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $215	+0% $163	+5% $111	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $103	+0% $163	+5% $223	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $201	base $163	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-26
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$110
• After-tax cash flow: $2,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home offers a good condition with recent updates, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both furniture — improves move-in readiness and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — improves move-in readiness and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazard Independent
• NCES district ID: 2102670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,115
• Composite: 32.59/100
• National rank: #5676
• State rank: #39 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hazard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,646

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,976 people
• By 2030: 23,390 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 20,270 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 17,547 · -29.7%
• By 2075: 12,599 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 9,358 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.7% · R 79.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.13%
• Current HPI: 143.629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $149,900 EKAR