8822 Morning Glow Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$459,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,874 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,470 sqft lot 2-car garage $160/sqft · 11% below area Est $513k · 11% under $104/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This house is located in one the most desirable master plan community. 2 story High ceiling with open floor concept. most desirable floor plan with two bedrooms down. The gourmet kitchen is open to the dining and family room. There's a 2nd kichen behind. Tons of light and windows! Primary bedroom with double sink, tub & shower separate. Two bedroom +Game room and media room on the 2nd floor. One of bedroom has private vanity area & access to the bathroom. No backyard neighbor. Outdoor living offers cover patio, Large backyard is amazing for the kids. good FB schools.

Key facts

• Private vanity area
• Large backyard
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVATE VANITY AREA
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $459k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,049 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.12%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $513,431
• List price: $459,000
• Delta: -10.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1506 Country Air Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,808 (-2%)	5mo	$425,000	$151	84
1722 Country Air Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,773 (-4%)	8mo	$419,000	$151	80
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,763 (-4%)	6mo	$399,950	$145	78
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5	2,922 (+2%)	1mo	$600,878	$206	71
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,577 (-10%)	1mo	$419,900	$163	67
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+2%)	6mo	$445,000	$152	66
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.36mi	4/3.0	3,180 (+11%)	2mo	$605,000	$190	64
9714 Falling Leaf Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	3,067 (+7%)	1mo	$640,000	$209	61
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-12%)	6mo	$359,900	$143	60
1435 Columbia Grove Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5	3,076 (+7%)	5mo	$660,000	$215	58
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,529 (-12%)	2mo	$574,900	$227	55
9710 Falling Leaf Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	3,297 (+15%)	4mo	$595,000	$180	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-88,396
• Equity at exit: $96,266

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-135,990
• Equity at exit: $89,165

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 152 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.4 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $562,445 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 105 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1543
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$1,118 /mo · $13,415/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$898
• Net cashflow: $-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,836

Max offer price $381,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-311	+0% $-441	+5% $-571	+10% $-701
Rent	-10% $-779	-5% $-610	+0% $-441	+5% $-272	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-325	base $-441	+0.5pp $-560	+1.0pp $-681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	35d	1	0.19mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	52d	1	0.33mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.43mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.43mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	93d	1	0.65mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	0.67mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	2d	1	0.67mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	0d	1	1.07mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	28d	1	1.09mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	59d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure includedSeller disclosure included
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Located in Sienna communityAnnual association fee of $1,250Community pool amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2021Brick, cement siding and synthetic stucco exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalKitchen islandWalk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not explicitly listed)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity in bathKitchen islandPrimary bedroom with private bathWalk-in pantry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $459,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $459,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $459,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $459,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $459,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $459,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $459,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $459,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $459,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $459,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $459,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $459,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $459,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $459,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $459,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $459,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $459,000 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $459,000 Active 64 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $459,000 Active 63 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $459,000 Active 62 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $459,000 Active 61 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $459,000 Active 60 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $459,000 Active 59 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $459,000 Active 58 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $459,000 Active 56 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $459,000 Active 55 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $459,000 Active 54 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $459,000 Active 53 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $459,000 Active 52 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $459,000 Active 51 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 50 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $459,000 Active 49 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $459,000 Active 48 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $459,000 Active 47 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $459,000 Active 46 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $459,000 Active 45 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $459,000 Active 43 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $459,000 Active 41 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $459,000 Active 40 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $459,000 Active 37 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $459,000 Active 36 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $459,000 Active 35 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $459,000 Active 34 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $459,000 Active 32 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $459,000 Active 28 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $459,000 Active 27 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $459,000 Active 26 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $459,000 Active 23 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,000 Active 22 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,000 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,415 · $1,118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,415 · $1,118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$13,415
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,106
• − Management: −$4,106
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$12,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with potential for value-adding updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure includedSeller disclosure included
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Located in Sienna communityAnnual association fee of $1,250Community pool amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2021Brick, cement siding and synthetic stucco exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalKitchen islandWalk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not explicitly listed)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity in bathKitchen islandPrimary bedroom with private bathWalk-in pantry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

Price history

+15200.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $459,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Rental Removed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Rental Removed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2024-06-23 Listed for Rent $3,400 HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Listed $496,800 HARMLS
• 2024-04-14 Price Changed $525,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-02 Listed $548,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-04 Listed $549,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-22 Listed $550,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,415 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.