16639 Dobson Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 284 Days on market

Built 1961 7,622 sqft lot Est $233k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contract pending on property. Owner is accepting backup offers at this time.

Key facts

• Spacious deck
• Cozy living area
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS DECK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING AREA
• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Side driveway
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Built before 1978
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with hardwood flooring; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Portable dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level master bedroom (10 x 10) with hardwood flooring; Main-level bedroom (12 x 12) with hardwood flooring and blinds; Main-level bedroom (11 x 10) with hardwood flooring and blinds; Basement bedroom (12 x 12) with vinyl flooring
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring throughout main living areas; Vinyl flooring in basement bedroom; Other flooring in laundry/utility area
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry room (23 x 18); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1006 E 163rd St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,263 (+0%)	1mo	$262,500	$208	75
16927 Langley Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,288 (+2%)	1mo	$179,900	$140	70
1241 E 168th St	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,331 (+6%)	2mo	$230,000	$173	67
16645 Cottage Grove Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-11%)	1mo	$211,894	$189	66
17121 Ingleside Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-4%)	0mo	$225,000	$185	64
823 E 163rd St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-6%)	1mo	$197,500	$167	63
16549 Cottage Grove Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+13%)	2mo	$219,500	$154	61
16417 Claire Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,209 (-4%)	2mo	$254,995	$211	57
17140 Evans Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-4%)	2mo	$245,000	$203	57
459 E 166th St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	55
16916 Kimbark Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (+11%)	1mo	$283,000	$203	54
702 E 162nd Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	1mo	$230,000	$164	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-698
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $46,262
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,217/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $684	-5% $621	+0% $557	+5% $493	+10% $429
Rent	-10% $305	-5% $431	+0% $557	+5% $683	+10% $808
Rate	-1.0pp $670	-0.5pp $614	base $557	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	0d	1	0.45mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	7d	1	0.84mi
15707 Dante Dr South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,950	$1.64	4d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 263 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $237,000
17. 2025-12-31
    price $240,000
18. 2025-10-23
    price $263,000
19. 2025-10-15
    price $265,000
20. 2025-09-09
    listed $270,000 Active
21. 2024-12-20
    historical
22. 2024-12-03
    price
23. 2024-10-24
    historical $2,700
24. 2024-10-18
    listed $2,700
25. 2024-10-17
    price
26. 2024-09-17
    price
27. 2024-08-28
    listed Active
28. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus $250,000
29. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Contract pending on property. Owner is accepting backup offers at this time.

30. 2021-09-25
    status Pending 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Contract pending on property. Owner is accepting backup offers at this time.

31. 2017-12-25
    historical
32. 2017-11-11
    listed New
33. 2017-11-11
    historical
34. 2017-11-07
    price
35. 2017-10-30
    listed New
36. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus $138,000
37. 2016-05-06
    soldstatus $138,000 Closed Sale
38. 2016-01-28
    historical Contingent
39. 2016-01-11
    listed $139,900 New
40. 2015-12-30
    historical Contingent
41. 2015-12-30
    historical
42. 2015-12-04
    status Reactivated
43. 2015-10-19
    historical Contingent
44. 2015-09-30
    price
45. 2015-08-26
    listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,217 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,217 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$8,217
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,057
• − Management: −$3,057
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $3,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$865
• After-tax cash flow: $5,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+69.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $237,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $240,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $263,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $265,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $270,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-20 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-24 Rental Removed $2,700 MRED
• 2024-10-18 Listed for Rent $2,700 MRED
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $250,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-25 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-11 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-11 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-07 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-30 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-06 Sold (MLS) $138,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-28 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-11 Listed $139,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-30 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-30 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-04 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-19 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-30 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $8,217 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.