22838 Bear Vly #64 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$98,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1976 924 sqft lot $86/sqft · 12% below area Est $121k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 22838 Bear Valley Rd #64, a move-in ready home located in an all-ages community in Apple Valley, close to schools, shopping, and everyday amenities. Inside, you'll find fresh interior paint and new water-resistant flooring in the living room, dining area, and hallway, creating a clean, updated feel. A brand new evaporative cooler helps keep the home comfortable during the summer months. Outside, the large driveway offers parking for up to 3–4 vehicles, providing plenty of space for multiple cars or guests. The low-maintenance exterior makes upkeep easy. Community amenities include a pool, spa, and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Large driveway
• Move in ready
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW WATER RESISTANT FLOORING
• BRAND NEW EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $914 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $683 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,836 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.67%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,981
• List price: $98,800
• Delta: -18.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22838 Bear Valley Rd #101	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	12mo	$122,860	$107	90
22838 Bear Valley Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	22mo	$110,000	$95	82
22601 Bear Valley Rd #69	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	21mo	$120,000	$96	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $44,721
• Equity at exit: $14,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $124,433
• Equity at exit: $8,542

Cash invested: $27,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$518
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $914

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $98,800

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $970	-5% $942	+0% $914	+5% $886	+10% $859
Rent	-10% $764	-5% $839	+0% $914	+5% $990	+10% $1,065
Rate	-1.0pp $964	-0.5pp $940	base $914	+0.5pp $889	+1.0pp $863

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,700
• Closing costs: $2,964
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	21d	1	0.37mi
22526 Sioux Rd Unit 12 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	0d	1	0.41mi
22462 Miramot Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	0d	1	0.48mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	17d	1	1.23mi
13207 Franceska Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,050	$1.42	0d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,800 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,800 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,800 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,800 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,800 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,800 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,800 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,800 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,800 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,800 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $98,800 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,800 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,800 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,800 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,800 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Welcome to 22838 Bear Valley Rd #64, a move-in ready home located in an all-ages community in Apple Valley, close to schools, shopping, and everyday amenities. Inside, you'll find fresh interior paint and new water-resistant flooring in the living room, dining area, and hallway, creating a clean, updated feel. A brand new evaporative cooler helps keep the home comfortable during the summer months. Outside, the large driveway offers parking for up to 3–4 vehicles, providing plenty of space for multiple cars or guests. The low-maintenance exterior makes upkeep easy. Community amenities include a pool, spa, and clubhouse.

17. 2026-03-23
    status Pending Sale 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Welcome to 22838 Bear Valley Rd #64, a move-in ready home located in an all-ages community in Apple Valley, close to schools, shopping, and everyday amenities. Inside, you'll find fresh interior paint and new water-resistant flooring in the living room, dining area, and hallway, creating a clean, updated feel. A brand new evaporative cooler helps keep the home comfortable during the summer months. Outside, the large driveway offers parking for up to 3–4 vehicles, providing plenty of space for multiple cars or guests. The low-maintenance exterior makes upkeep easy. Community amenities include a pool, spa, and clubhouse.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $98,800 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Welcome to 22838 Bear Valley Rd #64, a move-in ready home located in an all-ages community in Apple Valley, close to schools, shopping, and everyday amenities. Inside, you'll find fresh interior paint and new water-resistant flooring in the living room, dining area, and hallway, creating a clean, updated feel. A brand new evaporative cooler helps keep the home comfortable during the summer months. Outside, the large driveway offers parking for up to 3–4 vehicles, providing plenty of space for multiple cars or guests. The low-maintenance exterior makes upkeep easy. Community amenities include a pool, spa, and clubhouse.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $342 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 119.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,534
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$2,874
• Taxable income: $9,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $8,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $98,800 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $342 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.