The Greenbrier II Plan · Vass, NC 28394

$307,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,237 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Greenbrier II greets you with a covered front porch for excellent curb appeal. Just off the owner's entrance is a spacious island kitchen with a large pantry for easy grocery drop-off. The open and light-filled family room and dining areas have direct access to the backyard for seamless entertaining. A generous upstairs owner's suite offers privacy for rest and relaxation, while the laundry is just steps away. Two additional bedrooms and a shared bath are separated by an oversized loft that can be optioned into a fourth bedroom while leaving space for a small office or reading nook.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Island kitchen
• Open family room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD
• UPSTAIRS OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $307,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $444,139.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.0% in Vass — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#593 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vass-Lakeview Elementary (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #328 of 1,410 statewide, top 24%, 460 students, 42% FRL); Crain'S Creek Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #199 of 475 statewide, top 43%, 592 students, 51% FRL); Union Pines High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #150 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,438 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,507 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.66%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,139
• List price: $307,990
• Delta: -30.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
454 James St	1.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,281 (+2%)	0mo	$480,000	$210	54
6 S Allyson Pl	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,345 (+5%)	6mo	$460,000	$196	53
3 Cordelia Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,433 (+9%)	12mo	$410,000	$169	38
206 Forester Dr	1.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,349 (+5%)	14mo	$422,817	$180	36
200 Scott Ave	1.04mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-19%)	8mo	$350,000	$192	33
108 Woodford Ln	1.11mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,443 (+9%)	12mo	$461,000	$189	31
237 Forester Dr	0.98mi	3/2.5	2,471 (+10%)	20mo	$444,778	$180	30
232 Forester Dr	0.99mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,349 (+5%)	18mo	$436,000	$186	30
236 Forester Dr	0.98mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,415 (+8%)	21mo	$449,700	$186	25
4 Cordelia Way	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,658 (+19%)	15mo	$475,000	$179	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-155,469
• Equity at exit: $66,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.95×
• Total profit: $-242,805
• Equity at exit: $38,401

Cash invested: $124,359 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $291,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 188 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28394

• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$555 /mo · $6,662/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-1,312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,885

Max offer price $254,357

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,005	-5% $-1,158	+0% $-1,312	+5% $-1,465	+10% $-1,618
Rent	-10% $-1,487	-5% $-1,399	+0% $-1,312	+5% $-1,224	+10% $-1,136
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,088	-0.5pp $-1,199	base $-1,312	+0.5pp $-1,427	+1.0pp $-1,544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,035
• Closing costs: $13,324
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 Forester Dr Vass, NC	3.0	2.0	1794	$2,299	$1.28	51d	1	1.02mi
310 West St Vass, NC	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	2d	1	1.20mi
821 Conductor Ct Vass, NC	3.0	2.5	1789	$1,965	$1.10	31d	1	1.28mi
755 Conductor Ct Vass, NC	4.0	2.5	1925	$1,900	$0.99	51d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveInventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: Listed price: $311,900
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Natural gas availableElectric service availableCentral air (cooling) and heat pump
• Home design: New construction planModel/Plan: The Greenbrier IIAddress: Vass, NC 28394
• Construction: No construction material, year built, roof, or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: No additional exterior details provided

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living space (plan)Plan name: The Greenbrier II
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $307,990 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $307,990 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $307,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $307,990 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $307,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $307,990 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $307,990 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $307,990 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $307,990 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $307,990 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $307,990 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $307,990 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $307,990 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $307,990 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $307,990 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $307,990 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $307,990 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $307,990 Active 173 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $307,990 Active 172 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $307,990 Active 171 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $307,990 Active 170 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $307,990 Active 169 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $307,990 Active 168 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $307,990 Active 167 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $307,990 Active 166 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $307,990 Active 165 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $307,990 Active 164 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $307,990 Active 163 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $307,990 Active 162 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $307,990 Active 161 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $307,990 Active 160 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $307,990 Active 159 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $307,990 Active 158 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $307,990 Active 157 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $307,990 Active 156 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $307,990 Active 155 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $307,990 Active 154 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    price $307,990 Active 153 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 153 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $317,990 Active 152 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $317,990 Active 151 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $317,990 Active 150 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $317,990 Active 149 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $317,990 Active 148 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $317,990 Active 147 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $317,990 Active 146 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $317,990 Active 145 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $317,990 Active 144 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $317,990 Active 142 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $317,990 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,879
• − Property taxes: −$6,662
• − Insurance: −$2,221
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$12,920
• Taxable loss: −$24,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,821
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

The Greenbrier II is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vass-Lakeview Elementary C NC #328/1,410 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Crain's Creek Middle D- NC #199/475 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Union Pines High B NC #150/535 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moore County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,333
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2967
• State rank: #58 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Vass

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #21646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Moore County · 106,902 people
• City population: 5,936
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• Population (ZIP): 5,936
• Household income: $79,643
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Moore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,902 people
• By 2030: 113,134 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 125,682 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 137,811 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 164,387 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 175,595 · +64.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Moore

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.99%
• Current HPI: 160.0419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveInventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: Listed price: $311,900
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Natural gas availableElectric service availableCentral air (cooling) and heat pump
• Home design: New construction planModel/Plan: The Greenbrier IIAddress: Vass, NC 28394
• Construction: No construction material, year built, roof, or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: No additional exterior details provided

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living space (plan)Plan name: The Greenbrier II
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided