11290 Squirrel Trl · Harold, FL 32583

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Manufactured public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1988 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a Gem... this water front cottage is a perfect getaway for your family. 3 bedrooms, den with ceiling fan, kitchen with pantry cabinets, dishwasher, fridge, stove. Laundry area in hall, good size bath room. Exit the back door to the beautiful creek front. There are 4 lots for a total size of 1.21 acres. The property also has access and use of the huge natural lakes. Lots of good fishing. Property has a sea wall across all lots, required to put the home on the property. This is a great place... peaceful, lots of wild life and nature. Must see!! Buy and build 3 more getaways on the other 3 lots.

Key facts

• Back yard
• Large natural lake
• Creek front

Tags

• BACK YARD
• CREEK FRONT
• LARGE NATURAL LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.2 acres; Unimproved road access with no road maintenance responsibility
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking with driveway
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Electric service with circuit breakers; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured Home; One story; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Approximately 700 square feet
• Construction: Frame construction; Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Does not allow horses; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Kitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($35/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#69 in FL, #1,163 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $195k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,195 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,042
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,000
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-01-13
    price $195,000
17. 2025-10-07
    listed $210,000 Active
18. 2012-09-25
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2012-08-17
    soldstatus $65,000 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    What a Gem... this water front cottage is a perfect getaway for your family. 3 bedrooms, den with ceiling fan, kitchen with pantry cabinets, dishwasher, fridge, stove. Laundry area in hall, good size bath room. Exit the back door to the beautiful creek front. There are 4 lots for a total size of 1.21 acres. The property also has access and use of the huge natural lakes. Lots of good fishing. Property has a sea wall across all lots, required to put the home on the property. This is a great place... peaceful, lots of wild life and nature. Must see!! Buy and build 3 more getaways on the other 3 lots.

20. 2011-04-21
    listed $64,900 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    What a Gem... this water front cottage is a perfect getaway for your family. 3 bedrooms, den with ceiling fan, kitchen with pantry cabinets, dishwasher, fridge, stove. Laundry area in hall, good size bath room. Exit the back door to the beautiful creek front. There are 4 lots for a total size of 1.21 acres. The property also has access and use of the huge natural lakes. Lots of good fishing. Property has a sea wall across all lots, required to put the home on the property. This is a great place... peaceful, lots of wild life and nature. Must see!! Buy and build 3 more getaways on the other 3 lots.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$984/yr (+$82/mo · 155.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$806
• After-tax cash flow: $841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Harold

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1163

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+200.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $195,000 PARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $210,000 PARMLS
• 2012-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-17 Sold (MLS) $65,000 PARMLS
• 2011-04-21 Listed $64,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.