63 Crystal Dr · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$750,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1998 0.80 ac lot $584/sqft · 11% above area Est $675k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 63 Crystal Drive, a captivating home nestled in the heart of Aquebogue, within the serene confines of Crystal Pine Estates. This single-level, three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is a beautiful blend of comfort, convenience, and potential. As you step through the front door, you're greeted by a welcoming layout designed for easy living. The primary bedroom suite offers a private bath, creating a personal retreat within the home. Two additional bedrooms share access to a full bath, providing ample space for guests or a home office. The home's potential is truly showcased in the spacious unfinished basement. With walk-out glass sliders, this area is ready to be transformed into additi

Key facts

• Outdoor amenities
• Private bath
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• PRIVATE BATH
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SPRAWLING .80 ACRES
• GARDEN BEDS
• NATURAL VEGETATION
• OUTDOOR AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 1 garage space; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Septic tank; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Actual property condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Full unfinished walk-out basement with storage; Crawl attic
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Balcony; Garden; Shed(s); Irrigation equipment; Back yard; Front yard; Hilly and partially wooded landscaping; Level and landscaped areas; Near golf course, shops and school; Private setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Pantry; Electric oven and range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes a first-floor bedroom)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired heating with baseboard units; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Storage space; Walk-through kitchen; Double-pane windows; Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in kitchen; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($215k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $750k).
• Recommended offer: $728k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$129k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $430k; list at $750k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $727,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.16%
• DSCR: 5.55
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $675,441
• List price: $750,000
• Delta: 11.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Church Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	11mo	$625,000	$434	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $1,547,483
• Equity at exit: $675,659

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.44×
• Total profit: $3,662,327
• Equity at exit: $1,457,085

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$786 /mo · $9,435/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $17,878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,369

Max offer price $750,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Promenade Dr Aquebogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1825	$29,000	$15.89	43d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $750,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $750,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $750,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $750,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $750,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $750,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $750,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $750,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $750,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $750,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $750,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $750,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $750,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $750,000 Active 1897-char remark
15. 2007-06-26
    soldstatus $430,000
16. 1998-05-26
    soldstatus $137,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,435 · $786/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,055 · $921/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,620/yr (+$135/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $348,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$9,435
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,840
• − Management: −$27,840
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable income: $215,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51,673
• After-tax cash flow: $162,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+447.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $430,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,435 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.