507 Goss St · Varna, NY 14850

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Built 1983 $54/sqft · 36% above area Est $37k · 36% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Hillside Acres where you will find this inviting three-bedroom, two full bathroom mobile home located just minutes from Cornell University. Designed with everyday living in mind, the home features an open functional layout that connects the living room, kitchen and dining area - perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or spending time with friends and family. The home has been updated and well cared for offering a warm, move-in ready feel. The primary bedroom has its own full bathroom for added privacy, while the additional two bedrooms provide flexibility for family members, guests, or a home office. A second full bathroom serves the remaining bedrooms and common areas. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, public transportation, and campus amenities, this home offers a comfortable residential setting with easy access to everything Ithaca has to offer! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Near dining
• Near shopping
• Full bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FULL BATHROOM
• MOVE IN READY
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.68%
• DSCR: 6.10
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,633
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 36.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Pauls Way	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	11mo	$35,000	$38	76
705 Mussell St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	3mo	$26,000	$31	65
205 Graduate Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	22mo	$5,000	$5	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $77,813
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.80×
• Total profit: $193,219
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $522

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,306	-5% $1,289	+0% $1,271	+5% $1,254	+10% $1,237
Rent	-10% $1,103	-5% $1,187	+0% $1,271	+5% $1,356	+10% $1,440
Rate	-1.0pp $1,297	-0.5pp $1,284	base $1,271	+0.5pp $1,258	+1.0pp $1,245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $50,000 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Welcome to Hillside Acres where you will find this inviting three-bedroom, two full bathroom mobile home located just minutes from Cornell University. Designed with everyday living in mind, the home features an open functional layout that connects the living room, kitchen and dining area - perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or spending time with friends and family. The home has been updated and well cared for offering a warm, move-in ready feel. The primary bedroom has its own full bathroom for added privacy, while the additional two bedrooms provide flexibility for family members, guests, or a home office. A second full bathroom serves the remaining bedrooms and common areas. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, public transportation, and campus amenities, this home offers a comfortable residential setting with easy access to everything Ithaca has to offer! Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-02-04
    price $55,000 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Welcome to Hillside Acres where you will find this inviting three-bedroom, two full bathroom mobile home located just minutes from Cornell University. Designed with everyday living in mind, the home features an open functional layout that connects the living room, kitchen and dining area - perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or spending time with friends and family. The home has been updated and well cared for offering a warm, move-in ready feel. The primary bedroom has its own full bathroom for added privacy, while the additional two bedrooms provide flexibility for family members, guests, or a home office. A second full bathroom serves the remaining bedrooms and common areas. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, public transportation, and campus amenities, this home offers a comfortable residential setting with easy access to everything Ithaca has to offer! Schedule your showing today!

19. 2025-12-16
    listed $60,000 Active 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Welcome to Hillside Acres where you will find this inviting three-bedroom, two full bathroom mobile home located just minutes from Cornell University. Designed with everyday living in mind, the home features an open functional layout that connects the living room, kitchen and dining area - perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or spending time with friends and family. The home has been updated and well cared for offering a warm, move-in ready feel. The primary bedroom has its own full bathroom for added privacy, while the additional two bedrooms provide flexibility for family members, guests, or a home office. A second full bathroom serves the remaining bedrooms and common areas. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, public transportation, and campus amenities, this home offers a comfortable residential setting with easy access to everything Ithaca has to offer! Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $15,427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,702
• After-tax cash flow: $11,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Varna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Varna, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $50,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $55,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $60,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-11.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $93 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.