415 Rincon St · Las Vegas, NM 87701

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Other public records · 277 Days on market

Built 1965 0.55 ac lot $62/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small adobe and frame/stucco house, with 2b1b, living room, large kitchen, and small dining area. Small fenced yard, driveway in front will hold one large vehicle or two small ones. Needs some TLC.

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#22 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• West Las Vegas Public Schools (town): math 10% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #76 of 95 in NM (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Miguel County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.47%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,348
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -57.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $24,026
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $67,460
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87701

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $581

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Railroad Ave Las Vegas, NM	1.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	21d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 205-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $80,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 259 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 258 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 257 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    price $80,000 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Small adobe and frame/stucco house, with 2b1b, living room, large kitchen, and small dining area. Small fenced yard, driveway in front will hold one large vehicle or two small ones. Needs some TLC.

19. 2025-09-15
    listed $85,000 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Small adobe and frame/stucco house, with 2b1b, living room, large kitchen, and small dining area. Small fenced yard, driveway in front will hold one large vehicle or two small ones. Needs some TLC.

20. 1989-06-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 46.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,425
• After-tax cash flow: $5,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Las Vegas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501560
• Math proficiency: 10% —
• Reading proficiency: 25% —
• Median HH income: $27,499
• Composite: 17.01/100
• National rank: #14192
• State rank: #76 of 95 in NM

Livability — Las Vegas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #8084

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Vegas, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,864

Population outlook (San Miguel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,750 people
• By 2030: 24,399 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 21,705 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,188 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 15,030 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 12,418 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 28% White 16% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · San Miguel

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.9) · D 62.9% · R 35.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: 60.6pp · 2024: 27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.9 2020: D+38.7 2016: D+46.4 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+60.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.60%
• Current HPI: 166.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $80,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $85,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 1989-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.