14891 Chase Ct · Magnolia Springs, AL 36580

$207,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 434 Days on market

Built 2007 10,149 sqft lot $145/sqft · 19% below area Est $258k · 19% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can own this 3/2 Brick house with a metal roof at a very reasonable price point. You will be hard pressed to find a deal that is better than this one. Located in a central part of the county, this low maintenance house is an easy drive to town, but with the country feel. Check this one out before it is gone. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Brick house
• Metal roof
• Easy drive to town

Tags

• BRICK HOUSE
• METAL ROOF
• LOW MAINTENANCE HOUSE
• EASY DRIVE TO TOWN
• COUNTRY FEEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Magnolia Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#58 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 434 days — a 12% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 434 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,523
• List price: $207,500
• Delta: -19.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14950 Chase Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	1mo	$215,000	$148	95
14965 Chase Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	12mo	$225,000	$155	85
14838 Chase Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	1mo	$205,000	$163	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $100,969
• Equity at exit: $157,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $280,955
• Equity at exit: $311,813

Cash invested: $58,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36580

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,088
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,046/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $207,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $309	+0% $250	+5% $191	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $174	+0% $250	+5% $326	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $303	base $250	+0.5pp $196	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,875
• Closing costs: $6,225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $207,500 Active 434 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,500 Active 433 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $207,500 Active 432 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $207,500 Active 431 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,500 Active 430 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $207,500 Active 428 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $207,500 Active 427 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $207,500 Active 425 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,500 Active 424 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $207,500 Active 423 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $207,500 Active 422 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $207,500 Active 418 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $207,500 Active 417 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $207,500 Active 416 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $207,500 Active 415 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $207,500 Active 414 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    price $207,500 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Why rent when you can own this 3/2 Brick house with a metal roof at a very reasonable price point. You will be hard pressed to find a deal that is better than this one. Located in a central part of the county, this low maintenance house is an easy drive to town, but with the country feel. Check this one out before it is gone. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

18. 2025-11-06
    price $212,500 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Why rent when you can own this 3/2 Brick house with a metal roof at a very reasonable price point. You will be hard pressed to find a deal that is better than this one. Located in a central part of the county, this low maintenance house is an easy drive to town, but with the country feel. Check this one out before it is gone. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2025-10-14
    status Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Why rent when you can own this 3/2 Brick house with a metal roof at a very reasonable price point. You will be hard pressed to find a deal that is better than this one. Located in a central part of the county, this low maintenance house is an easy drive to town, but with the country feel. Check this one out before it is gone. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2025-10-01
    historical Active Under Contract 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Why rent when you can own this 3/2 Brick house with a metal roof at a very reasonable price point. You will be hard pressed to find a deal that is better than this one. Located in a central part of the county, this low maintenance house is an easy drive to town, but with the country feel. Check this one out before it is gone. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2025-04-11
    listed $215,000 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Why rent when you can own this 3/2 Brick house with a metal roof at a very reasonable price point. You will be hard pressed to find a deal that is better than this one. Located in a central part of the county, this low maintenance house is an easy drive to town, but with the country feel. Check this one out before it is gone. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

22. 2007-06-20
    soldstatus $3,800,000
23. 2006-10-25
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,623
• − Property taxes: −$1,046
• − Insurance: −$1,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$6,036
• Taxable loss: −$451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$108
• After-tax cash flow: $3,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Magnolia Springs

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #8693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,025
• Population (ZIP): 7,025

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.97%
• Current HPI: 288.8697
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+107.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $207,500 BCAR
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $212,500 BCAR
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — BCAR
• 2025-10-01 Contingent — BCAR
• 2025-04-11 Listed $215,000 BCAR
• 2007-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $3,800,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,046 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.