510 Windrush Bay Dr · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$159,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Condo public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1976 $525/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Windrush Bay your waterfront retreat in Tarpon Springs, nestled along the beautiful Gulf coast. This well-appointed second-floor condo offers two spacious bedrooms making it an ideal maintenance-free winter escape, year-round residence, or income-producing investment. With no flooding or hurricane damage from recent storms, you can enjoy peace of mind while fully embracing the coastal lifestyle. As you enter through the double doors, you’ll find a bright and inviting living area featuring warm tones, laminate floors, and large windows that fill the space with natural light. The updated kitchen boasts white cabinets, elegant marble-look countertops, and black appliances, alo

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Community amenities
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• WATERFRONT RETREAT
• MAINTENANCE FREE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SCREENED PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SCENIC WALKING PATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact/management: Ellyse Vosselmann - AmeriTech
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $525; total annual fees $6,300; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $525 (includes pool, clubhouse, fitness center, recreational facilities, management, maintenance - grounds and structure, pest control, water, sewer, trash, insurance, escrow reserves); Association approval required; Community features include pool, clubhouse, fitness center, park, community mailbox, association-owned recreation; Pets allowed (max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Second-floor unit; Faces southeast; One level (within building); Building F
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-story building (2 stories total)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Paved road access; Mature landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Bamboo flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $160k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,202
• Equity at exit: $23,782

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-31,332
• Equity at exit: $13,791

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $159,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $176	+0% $130	+5% $85	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $51	+0% $130	+5% $210	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $171	base $130	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 Windrush Bay Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	0.03mi
610 Windrush Bay Dr Unit 226 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$1,750	$1.88	19d	1	0.03mi
602 Windrush Bay Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	25d	1	0.03mi
514 Windrush Bay Dr #514 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	25d	1	0.03mi
621 Windrush Bay Dr Unit 621 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$2,500	$2.69	21d	1	0.11mi
300 S Florida Ave Unit 100K Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	25d	1	0.40mi
412 Riverside Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	5d	1	1.10mi
1669 Seascape Cir #1669 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,200	$2.06	25d	1	1.32mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	25d	1	1.36mi
817 Margo St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,600	$2.02	25d	1	1.37mi
812 Bayou Ave Unit B Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	675	$1,450	$2.15	25d	1	1.39mi
606 Cross St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	551	$1,450	$2.63	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,500 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,500 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $159,500 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,500 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,500 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,500 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,500 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,500 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $162,500 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,500 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,500 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,500 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-04-26
    price $162,500
14. 2026-03-17
    price $164,500
15. 2026-03-09
    price $166,900
16. 2026-02-23
    price $172,500
17. 2026-02-04
    price $174,500
18. 2026-01-09
    price $175,900
19. 2025-11-13
    listed $179,900 Active
20. 1998-08-27
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$902/yr (+$75/mo · 213.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable loss: −$763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$183
• After-tax cash flow: $1,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+269.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $162,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $164,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $166,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $172,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $174,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $175,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.