82 Lees Creek Rd · Woodfin, NC 28806

$299,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1972 0.29 ac lot $227/sqft · 18% below area Est $355k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this lovely 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home. Fantastic condition with many new updates including roof, gutters, windows, flooring, hot water heater. Huge kitchen/dining area with newer custom cabinets and stainless appliances. Nice patio area off kitchen enters fully fenced back yard. A short drive to Downtown Asheville.

Key facts

• Large open kitchen
• Updated fixtures
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• BRIGHT REFRESHED INTERIOR
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• PROXIMITY TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Four open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site-built construction; One story; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Partial brick and wood exterior; Slab foundation; Site-built
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Cleared and sloped lot; Concrete and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Baseboard heating; No central air
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Woodfin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#538 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buncombe County Schools (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #72 of 178 in NC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Buncombe Elementary (math 56% / reading 52%, grade C, #328 of 1,410 statewide, top 24%, 588 students, 66% FRL); Erwin Middle (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #262 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 568 students, 74% FRL); Erwin High (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #306 of 535 statewide, top 57%, 1,096 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 47% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,305 units permitted in Buncombe County in 2024 (1,855 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buncombe County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $300k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,232 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,081
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -15.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Lynwood Cir	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (-5%)	3mo	$350,000	$280	80
21 Mount Carmel Dr	0.02mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,230 (-7%)	6mo	$302,500	$246	77
167 Mount Carmel Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (+5%)	1mo	$345,000	$249	62
55 Tipperary Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,357 (+3%)	16mo	$370,000	$273	59
6 Erwin Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (-9%)	16mo	$320,000	$268	58
54 Mt Carmel Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (+12%)	3mo	$395,000	$268	58
69 N Willow Brook Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (+11%)	1mo	$430,000	$293	47
51 Sunset Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-6%)	7mo	$350,000	$282	45
152 Ben Lippen Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,245 (-6%)	10mo	$369,000	$296	42
262 Erwin Hills Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+10%)	12mo	$509,000	$350	42
181 Mount Carmel Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-11%)	16mo	$350,000	$299	36
28 Timber Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,498 (+14%)	4mo	$375,000	$250	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,914
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,614
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28806

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $274,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-59	+0% $-144	+5% $-229	+10% $-314
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-231	+0% $-144	+5% $-57	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-68	base $-144	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13 Kilkenny Dr Asheville, NC	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,850	$1.60	15d	1	0.12mi
62 Tipperary Dr Asheville, NC	3.0	1.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	25d	1	0.40mi
42 Celebration Pl Asheville, NC	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	45d	1	0.89mi
5 Frankie Ln Asheville, NC	3.0	1.0	912	$2,500	$2.74	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $299,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $329,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $349,900 Active 1063-char remark
18. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus $135,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Move right into this lovely 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home. Fantastic condition with many new updates including roof, gutters, windows, flooring, hot water heater. Huge kitchen/dining area with newer custom cabinets and stainless appliances. Nice patio area off kitchen enters fully fenced back yard. A short drive to Downtown Asheville.

19. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus $135,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Move right into this lovely 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home. Fantastic condition with many new updates including roof, gutters, windows, flooring, hot water heater. Huge kitchen/dining area with newer custom cabinets and stainless appliances. Nice patio area off kitchen enters fully fenced back yard. A short drive to Downtown Asheville.

20. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus $135,000

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Move right into this lovely 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home. Fantastic condition with many new updates including roof, gutters, windows, flooring, hot water heater. Huge kitchen/dining area with newer custom cabinets and stainless appliances. Nice patio area off kitchen enters fully fenced back yard. A short drive to Downtown Asheville.

21. 2013-11-25
    listed $139,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Move right into this lovely 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home. Fantastic condition with many new updates including roof, gutters, windows, flooring, hot water heater. Huge kitchen/dining area with newer custom cabinets and stainless appliances. Nice patio area off kitchen enters fully fenced back yard. A short drive to Downtown Asheville.

22. 2003-08-11
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 1991-03-25
    soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,117/yr (+$93/mo · 83.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$2,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,695
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buncombe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,981
• Composite: 40.32/100
• National rank: #3749
• State rank: #72 of 178 in NC

Livability — Woodfin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Buncombe County · 241,085 people
• Metro: Asheville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,433
• Household income: $63,273
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1783.0

Population outlook (Buncombe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,475 people
• By 2030: 302,237 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 330,687 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 356,370 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 409,383 · +42.9%
• By 2100: 437,270 · +52.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Buncombe

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.8) · D 61.7% · R 36.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.9pp toward D · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 24.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.8 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+14.6 2012: D+12.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.16%
• Current HPI: 350.3071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Metro: Asheville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+559.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $299,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $329,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $349,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NCMMLS
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-25 Listed $139,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.