858 W Genesee Rd · Jordan, NY 13027

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1900 2.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just listed is the Baldwinsville (Plainville) home in need of significant rehab. Currently the home is a 3 bed (1 down, 2 up) floor plan with just over 1200 square feet with enclosed front and back porches. This property sits on over 2 1/2 acres of land to do what you want. Right on 370 so super easy access to Interstate 690 and the Thruway. Lots of work needed so this is a cash only sale! NO NEGOTIATIONS FOR AT LEAST 1 WEEK. THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS!

Key facts

• 2.68 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 12 days

Tags

• OVER 2 1/2 ACRES OF LAND
• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE 690
• EASY ACCESS TO THRUWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 1.1% in Jordan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.21%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,912
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7991 Plainville Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,086 (-14%)	16mo	$165,000	$152	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $56,159
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $137,095
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13027

• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $1,071

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,124
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,991
• After-tax cash flow: $9,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwinsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,182
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2848
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jordan

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,088
• Household income: $91,797
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 321.8247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $75,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,124 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.