14951 Riverside Dr · South Holland, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.8/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.6/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.7/10.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$185,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
There are no remarks available.
Key facts
- Hardwood flooring
- Security system
- Newer plumbing
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Parcel number 29093180080000; Not currently leased; Possession at closing or immediate
- HOA & community: No master association fee required
Exterior
- Parking: Detached garage with two garage spaces; Concrete driveway; Garage door opener; Garage owned
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
- Home design: Detached single-family home; Two-story model; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978 (home is 91–100 years old)
- Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
- Exterior features: Lot roughly 50 x 150; Neighborhood has park, sidewalks, street lights, and paved streets
Interior
- Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
- Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (12 x 12) with full bath; Two additional bedrooms on second level (each 12 x 12); Den on second level (12 x 12)
- Flooring: Hardwood floors throughout primary living areas and bedrooms
- Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: First-floor bedroom; 7 total rooms; Unfinished attic; Unfinished/partial basement
- Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
- Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 8.4% in South Holland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
- Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $67k; list at $185k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.26% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.70%
- Cash-on-cash
- 15.74%
- DSCR
- 1.70
- GRM
- 6.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $152,090
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 523 E 149th St | 0.17mi | 3/1.5 | 1,143 (+1%) | 2mo | $80,000 | $70 | 90 |
| 14727 Riverside Dr | 0.30mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (+6%) | 3mo | $212,000 | $177 | 67 |
| 14825 Perry Ave | 0.17mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,014 (-11%) | 1mo | $200,000 | $197 | 66 |
| 931 Miller Pl | 0.44mi | 3/1.5 | 1,042 (-8%) | 1mo | $140,000 | $134 | 65 |
| 15061 Wabash Ave | 0.67mi | 3/1.5 | 1,116 (-2%) | 2mo | $150,000 | $134 | 64 |
| 15536 State St | 0.63mi | 3/1.0 | 1,212 (+7%) | 4mo | $140,000 | $116 | 54 |
| 14817 S Wentworth Ave | 0.56mi | 3/2.0 | 1,270 (+12%) | 3mo | $180,000 | $142 | 50 |
| 15444 State St | 0.58mi | 3/2.5 | 1,254 (+10%) | 2mo | $207,000 | $165 | 49 |
| 15316 4th Ave | 0.52mi | 3/1.0 | 964 (-15%) | 2mo | $35,000 | $36 | 47 |
| 14844 Wabash Ave | 0.60mi | 3/1.0 | 1,277 (+12%) | 4mo | $125,000 | $98 | 46 |
| 14828 Wabash Ave | 0.63mi | 3/1.0 | 1,296 (+14%) | 1mo | $112,000 | $86 | 44 |
| 14914 Edbrooke Ave | 0.64mi | 3/1.0 | 1,287 (+13%) | 2mo | $100,000 | $78 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 6.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.26×
- Total profit
- $13,256
- Equity at exit
- $27,584
- IRR
- 15.9%
- Equity multiple
- 2.30×
- Total profit
- $67,123
- Equity at exit
- $15,995
Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60473
- Active inventory
- 135
- Price-to-rent
- 6.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,339 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$970
- Tax from tax record
- −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
- Insurance
- −$77
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$491
- Net cashflow
- $679
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $46,250
- Closing costs
- $5,550
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 7 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14844 Wabash Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1277 | $2,320 | $1.82 | 24d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,500 | $1.88 | 10d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1200 | $3,400 | $2.83 | 24d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1200 | $3,400 | $2.83 | 7d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1091 | $1,650 | $1.51 | 24d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1418 | $2,500 | $1.76 | 24d | 1 | 1.50mi |
| 14101 S Atlantic Ave Riverdale, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 790 | $1,140 | $1.44 | 7d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Listing history 25 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $185,000 Active 205 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $185,000 Active 204 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $185,000 Active 203 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $185,000 Active 202 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $185,000 Active 200 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $185,000 Active 199 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $185,000 Active 196 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $185,000 Active 195 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $185,000 Active 194 DOM
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2026-06-04days on market $185,000 Active 191 DOM
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2026-06-03days on market $185,000 Active 190 DOM
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2026-06-02days on market $185,000 Active 189 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $185,000 Active 188 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $185,000 Active 187 DOM
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2026-01-09price $185,000
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2025-11-25$200,000 Active
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2025-11-25historical
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2025-07-02Active
-
2016-06-29soldstatus $67,000
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2016-05-20soldstatus $67,000 Closed Sale 31-char remark
Show marketing remark (31 chars)
There are no remarks available.
-
2016-05-05status Pending 31-char remark
Show marketing remark (31 chars)
There are no remarks available.
-
2016-03-26historical Contingent 31-char remark
Show marketing remark (31 chars)
There are no remarks available.
-
2016-02-29$99,900 New 31-char remark
Show marketing remark (31 chars)
There are no remarks available.
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1988-01-15soldstatus $40,000
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1988-01-01soldstatus $40,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,455 · $121/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,827 · $236/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,372/yr (+$114/mo · 94.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,068
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,363
- − Property taxes
- −$1,455
- − Insurance
- −$925
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,245
- − Management
- −$2,245
- − Depreciation
- −$5,382
- Taxable income
- $5,452
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,309
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,843/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Thornton Twp Hsd 205
- NCES district ID
- 1738970
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 8% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,392
- Composite
- 6.92/100
- National rank
- #9976
- State rank
- #594 of 620 in IL
Livability — South Holland
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #167
- US rank
- #3071
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- South Holland, IL
- City population
- 21,407
- Population (ZIP)
- 21,407
Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 5,347,519 people
- By 2030
- 5,357,703 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 5,324,924 · -0.4%
- By 2050
- 5,230,762 · -2.2%
- By 2075
- 4,785,735 · -10.5%
- By 2100
- 4,188,836 · -21.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (75%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Cook
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -114.36%
- Current HPI
- 201.2479
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
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| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
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Price history
+362.5% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-01-09 Price Changed $185,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-25 Listed $200,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2016-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
- 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2016-05-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2016-03-26 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2016-02-29 Listed $99,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1988-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
- 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-1.8%/yrLatest (2023): $1,455 · +246.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…