10507 Watershed Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583

$270,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,513 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 7,365 sqft lot $107/sqft · 15% below area Est $326k · 17% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the serene Sierra Vista West community, 10507 Watershed Drive in Rosharon, TX, offers a harmonious blend of modern comfort and timeless elegance. This 2,513 sq. ft. single story residence, built in 2023, boasts an open-concept layout with abundant natural light and high ceilings. The gourmet kitchen, featuring quartz countertops and ENERGY STAR appliances, seamlessly flows into the spacious living and dining areas. The owner's suite serves as a private retreat with a luxurious en suite bath and expansive walk-in closet. Situated on a 7,366 sq. ft. corner lot, the home is complemented by a three-car garage and a covered patio, perfect for outdoor gatherings. Located within a controlled-access neighborhood, residents enjoy amenities such as tennis courts and proximity to top-rated schools. With a blend of contemporary design and community charm, this home is a sanctuary for those seeking both style and tranquility.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ENERGY STAR APPLIANCES
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (13.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,750 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,220
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -17.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10831 Bodie Hills Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,598 (+3%)	2mo	$378,000	$145	76
1225 Scarlet Mountain Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,468 (-2%)	5mo	$290,000	$118	75
10507 Sutter Creek Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,566 (+2%)	3mo	$489,900	$191	70
1314 Eagle Pass Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,604 (+4%)	2mo	$339,900	$131	69
1906 Temple Grove Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,468 (-2%)	4mo	$386,550	$157	63
10910 Amador Peak Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,372 (-6%)	7mo	$354,990	$150	62
1702 Homewood Point Ln	0.35mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,718 (+8%)	5mo	$429,000	$158	57
10914 Amador Peak Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-12%)	0mo	$374,485	$170	56
1811 Tioga View Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,875 (+14%)	1mo	$429,990	$150	53
1834 Temple Grove Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-12%)	6mo	$364,990	$166	51
1922 Temple Grove Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-12%)	6mo	$360,990	$164	46
10902 Amador Peak Dr	0.48mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,841 (+13%)	6mo	$465,780	$164	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-67,479
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-107,235
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $363,855 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -15.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$978 /mo · $11,738/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,274

Max offer price $234,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-188	+0% $-264	+5% $-341	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-380	+0% $-264	+5% $-148	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-196	base $-264	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	93d	1	0.17mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	52d	1	0.17mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	56d	1	0.19mi
1207 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2070	$2,300	$1.11	36d	1	0.32mi
10534 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,770	$1.54	0d	1	0.33mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	93d	1	0.35mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	93d	1	0.50mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,579	$1.46	0d	17	0.59mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	0d	8	0.95mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	93d	7	0.95mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	93d	1	1.02mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	93d	1	1.03mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	48d	1	1.06mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	62d	1	1.10mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $80/mo · $960/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $270,000 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $270,000 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $285,000 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $285,000 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $285,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $285,000 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $285,000 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $285,000 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $285,000 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $285,000 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 239 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $285,000 Active 238 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 237 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $285,000 Active 236 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 235 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 234 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $285,000 Active 233 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $285,000 Active 232 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 231 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 229 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $285,000 Active 228 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $285,000 Active 227 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 226 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 225 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 224 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 223 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 222 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $285,000 Active 221 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $285,000 Active 220 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $285,000 Active 219 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $285,000 Active 218 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $285,000 Active 216 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $285,000 Active 214 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $285,000 Active 213 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 210 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $285,000 Active 209 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $285,000 Active 208 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 207 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 205 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 204 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 201 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 200 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 199 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 196 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 195 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,738 · $978/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,738 · $978/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$11,738
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,822
• − Management: −$2,822
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$7,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,565–$37,695 screening

This home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed. It offers a good balance of modern comfort and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen cabinets — New cabinets enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $365,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+88.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,738 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.