111 Sunset Dr E · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1964 10,785 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * * Don't Miss This Opportunity! This home offers amazing potential and features 4 bedrooms and 1 full bath, making it ideal for homeowners or investors. The kitchen is just off from the spacious dining area, great for family gatherings, while the spacious living room and family room provides extra space to relax. The primary bedroom as well as the other rooms are generously sized, offering a built-in closets. This home is a great candidate to be transformed into your ideal living space or added to your rental portfolio. Property is being sold As-Is. All buyers MUST view the home in person before submitting an offer. Opportunities like this don't last long, schedule yo

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot size roughly 0.25 acre
• HOA & community: No HOA association reported; Community features: None listed (street lights present)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 4 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces southeast; Residential zoning (R-3)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported (per records)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved road access; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jewett School of The Arts (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 679 students, 48% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,231/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1270% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.38%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-638
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,699
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2451 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	23d	1	0.48mi
295 Lake Smart Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	23d	1	0.51mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	0.90mi
3895 Conine Dr E Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.90mi
304 Avenue P NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	2820	$2,200	$0.78	23d	1	1.03mi
251 Krenson Bay Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	23d	1	1.18mi
3711 Julius Estates Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,100	$1.14	19d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricestatus $200,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-04-07
    price $215,000
12. 2026-02-25
    listed $224,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 39.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $3,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $5,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,193 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.