6157 Midnight Pass Rd Unit A51 · Siesta Key, FL 34242

$350,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · Condo public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1974 $1133/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a vacation home that also produces income? This one is for you! A charming updated GROUND floor condo featuring 2 rentable bedrooms and 1 bathroom making this the LOWEST priced unit in the Bay Oaks complex. This unit comes completely furnished, allows short term 1 WEEK RENTALS and already has a high rating and excellent cash flow with VRBO #911238. The condo is equipped with a full kitchen and reserved covered parking, a water view from the lanai and is located in beautiful Siesta Key, Florida. This particular unit is located about 30 feet from the intracoastal waterway, so soak up pristine gulf views right from your own lanai! It is also a stone's throw away from the community's heated pool. The unit was refreshed with an updated bathroom, kitchen, lanai tile and added insulation for efficiency and sound dampening. The Bay Oaks community amenities include a heated pool, tennis court, dock on the bay, fishing pier, community barbecue grill, community billiard room, 1 parking space (and access to additional visitor space) and all common area and outdoor maintenance. Internet, water, and trash are also included in the fee. The community is on the Siesta Key trolley line with a stop right out front. Located near the vibrant Sarasota nightlife, upscale shops and dining options, there's always something to explore. Did I mention Siesta Key was named #1 beach in AMERICA and 4th in the WORLD? Its nearly 99% quartz-crystal powdered sand, dubbed the “world’s finest, whitest sand”, never gets hot under the Gulf Coast sun and tropical weather. The 2016 $20 million-dollar renovation added a new playground, two concession stands, more restrooms, a half-mile long esplanade, many shelters and pavilions, and a renovated Sarasota School of Architecture pavilion. With 950 free parking spaces, this venue provides the most parking for any public beach in Sarasota County. You will want to check this out for yourself. Book a week vacation and explore before you buy or book a single showing. Either way, you won't be disappointed.

Key facts

• Ground floor condo
• Updated kitchen
• Water view

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR CONDO
• WATER VIEW
• HEATED POOL
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY BARBECUE GRILL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-917 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (46.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#512 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $303k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,005 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-78,968
• Equity at exit: $89,643

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-106,559
• Equity at exit: $98,601

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34242

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,852/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $-917

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,888

Max offer price $188,005

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,133 · $13,596/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashinternetpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $350,000 2072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2072 chars)

    Looking for a vacation home that also produces income? This one is for you! A charming updated GROUND floor condo featuring 2 rentable bedrooms and 1 bathroom making this the LOWEST priced unit in the Bay Oaks complex. This unit comes completely furnished, allows short term 1 WEEK RENTALS and already has a high rating and excellent cash flow with VRBO #911238. The condo is equipped with a full kitchen and reserved covered parking, a water view from the lanai and is located in beautiful Siesta Key, Florida. This particular unit is located about 30 feet from the intracoastal waterway, so soak up pristine gulf views right from your own lanai! It is also a stone's throw away from the community's heated pool. The unit was refreshed with an updated bathroom, kitchen, lanai tile and added insulation for efficiency and sound dampening. The Bay Oaks community amenities include a heated pool, tennis court, dock on the bay, fishing pier, community barbecue grill, community billiard room, 1 parking space (and access to additional visitor space) and all common area and outdoor maintenance. Internet, water, and trash are also included in the fee. The community is on the Siesta Key trolley line with a stop right out front. Located near the vibrant Sarasota nightlife, upscale shops and dining options, there's always something to explore. Did I mention Siesta Key was named #1 beach in AMERICA and 4th in the WORLD? Its nearly 99% quartz-crystal powdered sand, dubbed the “world’s finest, whitest sand”, never gets hot under the Gulf Coast sun and tropical weather. The 2016 $20 million-dollar renovation added a new playground, two concession stands, more restrooms, a half-mile long esplanade, many shelters and pavilions, and a renovated Sarasota School of Architecture pavilion. With 950 free parking spaces, this venue provides the most parking for any public beach in Sarasota County. You will want to check this out for yourself. Book a week vacation and explore before you buy or book a single showing. Either way, you won't be disappointed.

17. 2026-03-06
    price $375,000 2072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2072 chars)

    Looking for a vacation home that also produces income? This one is for you! A charming updated GROUND floor condo featuring 2 rentable bedrooms and 1 bathroom making this the LOWEST priced unit in the Bay Oaks complex. This unit comes completely furnished, allows short term 1 WEEK RENTALS and already has a high rating and excellent cash flow with VRBO #911238. The condo is equipped with a full kitchen and reserved covered parking, a water view from the lanai and is located in beautiful Siesta Key, Florida. This particular unit is located about 30 feet from the intracoastal waterway, so soak up pristine gulf views right from your own lanai! It is also a stone's throw away from the community's heated pool. The unit was refreshed with an updated bathroom, kitchen, lanai tile and added insulation for efficiency and sound dampening. The Bay Oaks community amenities include a heated pool, tennis court, dock on the bay, fishing pier, community barbecue grill, community billiard room, 1 parking space (and access to additional visitor space) and all common area and outdoor maintenance. Internet, water, and trash are also included in the fee. The community is on the Siesta Key trolley line with a stop right out front. Located near the vibrant Sarasota nightlife, upscale shops and dining options, there's always something to explore. Did I mention Siesta Key was named #1 beach in AMERICA and 4th in the WORLD? Its nearly 99% quartz-crystal powdered sand, dubbed the “world’s finest, whitest sand”, never gets hot under the Gulf Coast sun and tropical weather. The 2016 $20 million-dollar renovation added a new playground, two concession stands, more restrooms, a half-mile long esplanade, many shelters and pavilions, and a renovated Sarasota School of Architecture pavilion. With 950 free parking spaces, this venue provides the most parking for any public beach in Sarasota County. You will want to check this out for yourself. Book a week vacation and explore before you buy or book a single showing. Either way, you won't be disappointed.

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $350,000 Active 2072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2072 chars)

    Looking for a vacation home that also produces income? This one is for you! A charming updated GROUND floor condo featuring 2 rentable bedrooms and 1 bathroom making this the LOWEST priced unit in the Bay Oaks complex. This unit comes completely furnished, allows short term 1 WEEK RENTALS and already has a high rating and excellent cash flow with VRBO #911238. The condo is equipped with a full kitchen and reserved covered parking, a water view from the lanai and is located in beautiful Siesta Key, Florida. This particular unit is located about 30 feet from the intracoastal waterway, so soak up pristine gulf views right from your own lanai! It is also a stone's throw away from the community's heated pool. The unit was refreshed with an updated bathroom, kitchen, lanai tile and added insulation for efficiency and sound dampening. The Bay Oaks community amenities include a heated pool, tennis court, dock on the bay, fishing pier, community barbecue grill, community billiard room, 1 parking space (and access to additional visitor space) and all common area and outdoor maintenance. Internet, water, and trash are also included in the fee. The community is on the Siesta Key trolley line with a stop right out front. Located near the vibrant Sarasota nightlife, upscale shops and dining options, there's always something to explore. Did I mention Siesta Key was named #1 beach in AMERICA and 4th in the WORLD? Its nearly 99% quartz-crystal powdered sand, dubbed the “world’s finest, whitest sand”, never gets hot under the Gulf Coast sun and tropical weather. The 2016 $20 million-dollar renovation added a new playground, two concession stands, more restrooms, a half-mile long esplanade, many shelters and pavilions, and a renovated Sarasota School of Architecture pavilion. With 950 free parking spaces, this venue provides the most parking for any public beach in Sarasota County. You will want to check this out for yourself. Book a week vacation and explore before you buy or book a single showing. Either way, you won't be disappointed.

19. 2025-11-18
    historical
20. 2025-09-15
    price $350,000
21. 2025-09-02
    price $365,000
22. 2025-08-05
    listed $395,000 Active
23. 2025-06-30
    historical
24. 2025-05-14
    price $425,000
25. 2024-11-06
    price $485,000
26. 2024-09-22
    listed $499,000 Active
27. 2024-08-01
    historical
28. 2024-07-05
    price $524,999
29. 2024-05-03
    price $534,999
30. 2024-02-20
    price $539,000
31. 2024-02-02
    listed $559,000 Active
32. 2019-05-29
    soldstatus $303,000
33. 2019-05-21
    soldstatus $303,000 Sold
34. 2019-04-11
    status Pending
35. 2019-01-02
    listed $315,000 Active
36. 2017-08-22
    soldstatus $285,000
37. 2017-08-18
    soldstatus $285,000 Sold
38. 2017-07-24
    status Pending
39. 2017-04-30
    status Active
40. 2017-01-04
    status Pending
41. 2017-01-04
    historical
42. 2016-12-23
    listed $304,000 Active
43. 2012-01-12
    listed $130,500
44. 2007-08-28
    listed $329,000
45. 2005-12-01
    listed $475,000
46. 2005-07-28
    soldstatus $355,000
47. 2005-07-26
    soldstatus $355,000
48. 2005-06-18
    listed $349,900
49. 2004-04-01
    soldstatus $218,000
50. 1991-11-20
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,852 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,852 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,852
• − Insurance: −$6,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,579
• − Management: −$3,579
• − HOA: −$13,596
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$16,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Siesta Key

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #512
• US rank: #9443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Siesta Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,529
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,529
• Household income: $115,967
• Rent vs Own: 9.6% rent · 90.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Current HPI: 237.6266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+944.8% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $395,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $485,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-22 Listed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $524,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $534,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $539,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listed $559,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $303,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-21 Sold (MLS) $303,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-02 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-18 Sold (MLS) $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-23 Listed $304,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-12 Listed $130,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-28 Listed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-01 Listed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $355,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-26 Sold (MLS) $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-18 Listed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records
• 1991-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1977-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,852 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.