1316 Clay Ave · New York, NY 10456

$700,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,382 sqft · MultiFamily · 438 Days on market

Built 1910 1,520 sqft lot Est $903k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Presenting a unique opportunity, this property, currently offered as a short sale, beckons you to envision its untapped potential. Although there is no direct interior access at the moment, this two-family residence provides a canvas for your creativity. Seize the chance to reimagine and unlock the hidden value within. The property comprises two distinct units. The second floor features 3 bedrooms, a living room, an eat-in kitchen, and a bathroom. On the first floor, you'll find 3 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, and a bathroom. The full finished basemen with bthroom, equipped with front and back doors, adds an extra dimension to the living space. This short sale is being offered "A

Key facts

• 1,520 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 438 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; No designated parking
• Utilities: Electric service by Con-Edison; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Duplex
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive. Per door: $39/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $622k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $616k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,221/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 11195% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$104k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 438 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $616,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 438 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $902,778
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1417 Crotona Ave	0.56mi	7/2.0 (+1)	2,410 (+1%)	4mo	$850,000	$353	64
1312 Findlay Ave	0.10mi	6/5.0	2,160 (-9%)	6mo	$850,000	$394	63
769 E 168th St	0.56mi	5/5.0 (-1)	2,400 (+1%)	18mo	$910,000	$379	40
1049 Trinity Ave	0.60mi	6/3.0	2,655 (+12%)	13mo	$700,000	$264	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $318,258
• Equity at exit: $558,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $921,792
• Equity at exit: $1,134,470

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10456

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$875 /mo · $10,500/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,306
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,123

Max offer price $700,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $319	+0% $77	+5% $-165	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-169	+0% $77	+5% $323	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $255	base $77	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-289

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$6,220
Total (2 units)			$6,221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $700,000 Active 438 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $700,000 Active 435 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $700,000 Active 434 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $700,000 Active 432 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $700,000 Active 430 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $700,000 Active 426 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $700,000 Active 425 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $700,000 Active 420 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $700,000 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $700,000 Active 417 DOM
11. 2025-10-21
    status Active
12. 2024-08-04
    price $700,000
13. 2024-01-23
    listed $600,000 Active
14. 2019-07-08
    historical
15. 2019-01-30
    listed $475,000 Active
16. 2019-01-01
    historical
17. 2018-08-30
    price $475,000
18. 2018-08-16
    listed $499,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$10,500
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,972
• − Management: −$5,972
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,608
• After-tax cash flow: $3,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 87,533
• Household income: $34,954
• Rent vs Own: 93.1% rent · 6.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11195.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 41% Two or more races 14% White 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 26%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 44% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.55%
• Current HPI: 293.766
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+40.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-04 Price Changed $700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-23 Listed $600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-30 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-30 Price Changed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-16 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid