1 Alcala Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$289,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Built 2026 ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gemini model is ideal for multi-use living, offering 2 full master suites, 2.5 baths, and a den that's perfect as an office or guest space. Designed for privacy and flexibility, this layout is ideal for couples, caretakers, or anyone who loves to host. Concrete block construction, impact windows, and premium finishes throughout. Live maintenance-free in a vibrant 55+ community filled with resort-style amenities and friendly neighbors. Ask about available move-in specials! All models are built with 3/16th true plywood roof sheathing, hurricane tie straps, R-30 insulation, & hip roof designs ensuring big insurance premium discounts. Our homes are equipped with all energy efficient a

Key facts

• Premium finishes
• Full master suites
• Maintenance-free

Tags

• FULL MASTER SUITES
• DEN PERFECT AS OFFICE
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• PREMIUM FINISHES
• MAINTENANCE-FREE

🏗️ New construction. The $289,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,440.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,385/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1759% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,521 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,440
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Golf Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,767 (-4%)	11mo	$260,000	$147	56
11 Isabella Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,975 (+7%)	18mo	$305,000	$154	47
15 Florida Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (-5%)	12mo	$295,000	$168	46
204 E Arbor Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (-13%)	4mo	$265,000	$166	35
209 Ramie Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-6%)	18mo	$380,000	$220	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-66,449
• Equity at exit: $45,542

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-86,589
• Equity at exit: $26,409

Cash invested: $85,523 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,602
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,582/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,672

Max offer price $272,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-121	+0% $-227	+5% $-332	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-321	+0% $-227	+5% $-132	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-149	base $-227	+0.5pp $-306	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,360
• Closing costs: $9,163
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,878	$1.84	15d	16	0.66mi
310 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2039	$2,800	$1.37	24d	1	0.85mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	24d	1	0.95mi
762 SE River Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$11,000	$5.41	24d	1	0.99mi
805 SE Cavern Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,500	$1.44	24d	1	1.14mi
400 NW Prima Vista Blvd Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1566	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	1.14mi
336 SE Tranquilla Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	1412	$2,700	$1.91	15d	1	1.25mi
430 SE Calmoso Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,200	$1.39	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-11
   price $289,000
3. 2025-12-18
   price $309,000
4. 2025-11-24
   price $299,000
5. 2025-09-08
   listed $305,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,109
• − Property taxes: −$4,582
• − Insurance: −$1,527
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − Depreciation: −$8,886
• Taxable loss: −$8,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: River Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $289,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $309,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $299,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $305,000 Beaches MLS