12605 S Homestead Rd · Sugar Island, MI 49783

$47,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sugar Island fishing retreat. This listing is for 1 cottage and 1/6 ownership of the 2 lots that are on 1 waterfront parcel that make up & acirc; & euro; & oelig; Fisherman & acirc; & euro; & trade; s Nook Lodge & acirc; & euro; �. Newer kitchen cabinets.

Key facts

• Waterfront parcel
• Listed 26 days

Tags

• WATERFRONT PARCEL
• NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sault Ste. Marie Area Schools (town): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #230 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sault Area Middle School (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #202 of 493 statewide, top 42%, 533 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Chippewa County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chippewa County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,787 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.68%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $26,039
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $66,316
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49783

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $980/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $528

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $555	-5% $542	+0% $529	+5% $515	+10% $502
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $481	+0% $529	+5% $576	+10% $623
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $541	base $529	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $47,500 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $47,500 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,500 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,500 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,500 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,500 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,500 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $47,500 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,500 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $47,500 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,500 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $47,500 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,500 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,500 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $47,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$980
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $6,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $4,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sault Ste. Marie Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630990
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,273
• Composite: 33.12/100
• National rank: #5559
• State rank: #230 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sugar Island

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,778

Population outlook (Chippewa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,043 people
• By 2030: 36,431 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 34,911 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 33,350 · -10.0%
• By 2075: 29,789 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 24,171 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Native American 14% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chippewa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.63%
• Current HPI: 149.9878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $47,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-9.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $980 · -65.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.