Moonstone Plan · Bennett, CO 80102

$468,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,695 sqft · SingleFamily · 576 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 576 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $468,950

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan design (Moonstone)
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Property located at 45923 Bluebird Ave, Bennett, CO 80102

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Moonstone); Open living area of 2695

🏗️ New construction. The $468,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $517,440.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-811 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#263 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bennett School District No. 29J (rural): math 13% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 86 in CO (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 576 days — a 12% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,000 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 576 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.72%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $517,440
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Elm St	0.13mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,456 (-9%)	1mo	$404,000	$164	71
47356 Lilac Ave	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,781 (+3%)	9mo	$499,000	$179	68
397 Maple St	0.20mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,781 (+3%)	14mo	$535,000	$192	67
47337 Bluebell Ave	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,513 (-7%)	2mo	$530,000	$211	67
47387 Lilac Ave	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,781 (+3%)	15mo	$535,000	$192	66
335 Maple St	0.10mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,781 (+3%)	23mo	$515,000	$185	64
535 N 5th St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,740 (+2%)	6mo	$442,000	$161	63
47347 Bluebell Ave	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,316 (-14%)	1mo	$496,778	$214	50
545 N 5th St	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,740 (+2%)	22mo	$549,900	$201	49
650 4th St	0.57mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,812 (+4%)	15mo	$530,000	$188	42
1395 Viewridge Rd	0.52mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,935 (+9%)	24mo	$670,000	$228	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $230,217
• Equity at exit: $466,151

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $718,671
• Equity at exit: $1,005,272

Cash invested: $144,883 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80102

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,714
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$647 /mo · $7,762/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,526

Max offer price $400,100

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,360
• Closing costs: $15,523
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Racer St Bennett, CO	4.0	3.0	2536	$3,500	$1.38	24d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $468,950 Active 576 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $468,950 Active 575 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $468,950 Active 574 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $468,950 Active 573 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $468,950 Active 571 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $468,950 Active 570 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $468,950 Active 567 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $468,950 Active 566 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $468,950 Active 565 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $468,950 Active 562 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $468,950 Active 561 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $468,950 Active 560 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $468,950 Active 559 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $468,950 Active 558 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,985
• − Property taxes: −$7,762
• − Insurance: −$2,587
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$15,053
• Taxable loss: −$19,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bennett School District No. 29J
• NCES district ID: 0802430
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $69,795
• Composite: 21.39/100
• National rank: #8353
• State rank: #69 of 86 in CO

Livability — Bennett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #19691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bennett, CO
• City population: 5,994
• Population (ZIP): 5,994

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.94%
• Current HPI: 494.39
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B