2616 Hale Ave · Louisville, KY 40211

$55,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 1915 6,098 sqft lot Est $78k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity. This home has plenty of space with two bedrooms on the first floor and two bedrooms on the 2nd floor. Cellar has entrance from the inside of the house as well. Blank canvas for your imagination.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 92 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Traditional style; 2 stories; Built in 1915
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Sidewalk along the lot; Lot is cleared

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Two bedrooms on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Basement is unfinished with outside entry; Basement present; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,349/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 1483% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $55k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.43%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,550
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1331 S 28th St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (-2%)	6mo	$60,000	$52	71
1419 S 28th St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,203 (+2%)	6mo	$100,000	$83	67
2304 Date St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (+0%)	7mo	$165,000	$140	66
1812 Wilson Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (+6%)	1mo	$135,000	$108	57
2136 W Gaulbert Ave	0.75mi	4/1.5	1,210 (+3%)	6mo	$92,000	$76	54
3107 Dumesnil St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,035 (-12%)	6mo	$32,000	$31	46
2104 W Burnett Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,282 (+9%)	6mo	$67,000	$52	46
1705 1/2 Hale Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,257 (+7%)	4mo	$58,000	$46	44
720 S 24th St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,254 (+7%)	7mo	$155,000	$124	43
3322 W Kentucky St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+10%)	2mo	$85,000	$66	42
848 S 23rd St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,029 (-12%)	6mo	$64,750	$63	39
2108 Bolling Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,011 (-14%)	7mo	$52,000	$51	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $36,555
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $98,150
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40211

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $981/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $498

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $688	+0% $673	+5% $657	+10% $642
Rent	-10% $566	-5% $620	+0% $673	+5% $726	+10% $779
Rate	-1.0pp $701	-0.5pp $687	base $673	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.07mi
1155 S 28th St Unit 4 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1010	$1,350	$1.34	24d	1	0.16mi
2708 Greenwood Ave Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.21mi
2710 W Kentucky St Apt 2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,300	$1.28	24d	1	0.30mi
1339 S 28th St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,175	$1.04	21d	1	0.31mi
2821 Greenwood Ave #1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,300	$1.17	24d	1	0.31mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	11d	1	0.32mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #4 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,250	$0.87	24d	1	0.32mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	24d	1	0.33mi
2912 Greenwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,150	$0.84	16d	1	0.35mi
2223 Saint Louis Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,175	$1.02	24d	1	0.38mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	24d	1	0.38mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	21d	1	0.38mi
2416 Garland Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	24d	1	0.41mi
1410 Standard Village Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$900	$0.75	24d	1	0.44mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	24d	1	0.52mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	22d	1	0.52mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	0.55mi
3122 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	24d	1	0.55mi
1439 Beech St Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1000	$820	$0.82	24d	1	0.59mi
3215 Virginia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$924	$0.95	24d	1	0.59mi
1705 1/2 Hale Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,400	$1.11	11d	1	0.70mi
1148 S 17th St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	24d	1	0.71mi
1723 W Kentucky St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	0.79mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	0.82mi
1644 W Kentucky St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.82mi
1622 Beech St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1108	$1,445	$1.30	16d	1	0.83mi
1616 Gallagher St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,400	$1.33	24d	1	0.84mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	22d	1	0.85mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	24d	1	0.85mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	24d	1	0.92mi
1714 W Hill St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,045	$1.00	24d	1	0.99mi
3611 Regatta Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,450	$1.40	16d	1	1.00mi
1708 W Gaulbert Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	936	$975	$1.04	24d	1	1.04mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	24d	1	1.07mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	1.11mi
1810 Magazine St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,450	$1.16	11d	1	1.12mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	4d	1	1.12mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	24d	1	1.19mi
2629 Olive St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	24d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $65,000
15. 2026-03-20
    price $70,000
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2012-03-28
    soldstatus $13,000
18. 2012-02-24
    listed $13,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$981
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $7,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $6,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $31,749
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.22%
• Current HPI: 176.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+367.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $65,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $70,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-03-28 Sold (MLS) $13,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-02-24 Listed $13,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $981 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.