148 Nightingale Cir · Ellenton, FL 34222

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1989 4,400 sqft lot Est $170k · 11% over $246/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In ready 2 br/2 ba home in much desired 55+ gated community of Ridgewood Oaks. All appliances and furniture stays. Newer wood laminate flooring throughout. Water heater replaced in 09, AC in 05 and roof in 04. Shed has been extended for added workshop space. Enjoy the sound of trickling water from our front yard pond as you have coffee in the shaded Florida room. Community includes pool, hot tub, tennis courts, shuffleboard, and recreational center with monthly activities. Close to shopping, restaurants, library and post office. E-z commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota and the beaches.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Large lot
• Rear private patio

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• EXPANDED DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED STORAGE SHED
• REAR PRIVATE PATIO
• CUSTOM BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Community features include golf carts allowed and clubhouse
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly HOA approximately $34.67; Quarterly association fee ($104) and quarterly condo/association-related fees; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities, gated access, cable TV and security; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK, breed restrictions, number limit; max pet weight ~25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard included in association services; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story (one level); South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Concrete road access (private maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $189k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.74%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,100
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Mockingbird Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,012 (+4%)	3mo	$120,000	$119	82
64 Spoonbill Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+3%)	9mo	$212,100	$212	75
112 Eagle Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,027 (+6%)	6mo	$179,000	$174	73
36 Wood Owl Ave	0.25mi	2/2.0	900 (-7%)	3mo	$209,900	$233	69
45 Wood Owl Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+3%)	13mo	$175,000	$175	67
24 Meadowlark Cir	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+4%)	10mo	$155,000	$154	65
7 Meadow Cir	0.29mi	2/2.0	864 (-11%)	8mo	$159,000	$184	57
141 Osprey Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	12mo	$133,000	$121	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,762
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $20,890
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,854

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $395	+0% $341	+5% $288	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $251	+0% $341	+5% $432	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $389	base $341	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	4d	37	0.42mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	0.56mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	4d	1	0.88mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	24d	1	1.21mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	1.27mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $246 · $2,952/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $189,000
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $219,900 Active
17. 2013-11-05
    soldstatus $70,000
18. 2013-10-08
    soldstatus $70,000 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Move-In ready 2 br/2 ba home in much desired 55+ gated community of Ridgewood Oaks. All appliances and furniture stays. Newer wood laminate flooring throughout. Water heater replaced in 09, AC in 05 and roof in 04. Shed has been extended for added workshop space. Enjoy the sound of trickling water from our front yard pond as you have coffee in the shaded Florida room. Community includes pool, hot tub, tennis courts, shuffleboard, and recreational center with monthly activities. Close to shopping, restaurants, library and post office. E-z commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota and the beaches.

19. 2013-03-16
    listed $73,500 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Move-In ready 2 br/2 ba home in much desired 55+ gated community of Ridgewood Oaks. All appliances and furniture stays. Newer wood laminate flooring throughout. Water heater replaced in 09, AC in 05 and roof in 04. Shed has been extended for added workshop space. Enjoy the sound of trickling water from our front yard pond as you have coffee in the shaded Florida room. Community includes pool, hot tub, tennis courts, shuffleboard, and recreational center with monthly activities. Close to shopping, restaurants, library and post office. E-z commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota and the beaches.

20. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus $80,000
21. 1990-04-04
    soldstatus $58,900
22. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $1,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − HOA: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $1,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $3,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-81.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-08 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-16 Listed $73,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,784 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.