2430 Misty Ln · Carrollton, TX 75006

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1965 0.25 ac lot $110/sqft · 38% below area Est $307k · 38% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling All Investors – Cash or Hard Money Only! Prime opportunity in an established Carrollton neighborhood with easy access to highways, shopping, dining, and major employment centers. Fire-damaged home has already been cleaned out and taken to the studs—saving significant time and demo costs. Ready for full rehab and your vision. Strong upside potential with nearby renovated comps approaching the high-$300s. Ideal for a fix-and-flip or rental hold. Opportunities like this—prepped, priced, and in a desirable area—don’t last. Buyer to verify all information, perform their own due diligence, property sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Desirable area
• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1965

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• FULL REHAB OPPORTUNITY
• NEARBY RENOVATED COMPS
• DESIRABLE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is offered for sale (standard listing); Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No carport spaces; No covered parking; Other parking type (unspecified)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story home; Entry level: main level and upper level
• Construction: Built in 1965
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.253 acres); Subdivision: Carrollton Downs 3; GPS-accessible location

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes appliances (unspecified/other)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living and dining areas; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer or laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#54 in TX, #2,159 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: commute F.
• Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mclaughlin Strickland El (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 682 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 58% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,441
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -38.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2430 Misty Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,720 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$110	100
2512 Towerwood Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,630 (-5%)	2mo	$325,000	$199	81
2308 Misty Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+1%)	13mo	$275,000	$159	80
2412 Northshore Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (-1%)	5mo	$355,000	$208	79
2312 Valleywood Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-0%)	3mo	$355,000	$207	75
3303 Water Oak Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,796 (+4%)	3mo	$450,000	$251	73
2318 Valleywood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-0%)	10mo	$325,000	$190	72
2223 Ridgedale Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,678 (-2%)	2mo	$365,000	$218	70
2306 Lakeland Pl	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+5%)	0mo	$368,000	$204	68
2231 Ridgedale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-10%)	5mo	$325,000	$210	62
2305 Briarwood Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,881 (+9%)	10mo	$379,000	$201	53
2120 Bowie Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-10%)	8mo	$339,900	$219	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,410
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-29,798
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75006

• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,463/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $256	+0% $203	+5% $149	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $112	+0% $203	+5% $293	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $251	base $203	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2309 Fyke Rd Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$2,450	$2.01	44d	1	0.40mi
2213 Nolan Dr Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,060	$1.44	25d	1	0.46mi
2121 Austin Dr Carrollton, TX	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,300	$1.31	8d	1	0.75mi
2834 Hollandale Ln Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1508	$2,395	$1.59	17d	1	0.79mi
2106 Austin Dr Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,900	$1.59	44d	1	0.80mi
2928 Mark Twain Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$2,340	$1.73	16d	1	0.81mi
3635 Garden Brook Dr #118 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1304	$1,940	$1.49	44d	1	0.88mi
2616 Lakehill Ln Unit 7D Carrollton, TX	2.0	1.0	1054	$2,163	$2.05	44d	1	0.89mi
2707 Mark Twain Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1549	$2,500	$1.61	44d	1	0.90mi
1919 E Crosby Rd Carrollton, TX	4.0	2.0	1646	$2,400	$1.46	44d	1	0.90mi
3635 Garden Brook Dr Farmers Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1304	$1,950	$1.50	44d	2	0.91mi
2726 Starcrest Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$2,350	$1.79	8d	1	0.93mi
3022 Valwood Pkwy Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1686	$3,200	$1.90	0d	1	0.94mi
3635 Garden Brook Dr #4400 Farmers Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1304	$2,100	$1.61	25d	1	0.95mi
3023 Topaz Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,199	$1.69	8d	1	1.02mi
14025 Janwood Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,400	$1.59	25d	1	1.13mi
14700 Marsh Ln Addison, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1119	$2,705	$2.42	0d	1	1.14mi
2656 Via La Paloma Carrollton, TX	4.0	3.0	1642	$2,375	$1.45	0d	1	1.15mi
2013 Via Sonoma Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.5	1570	$2,400	$1.53	8d	1	1.16mi
2012 Via Corona Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,200	$1.55	18d	1	1.17mi
2020 Via Bravo Carrollton, TX	2.0	1.5	1176	$2,100	$1.79	25d	1	1.19mi
2933 Country Place Cir Carrollton, TX	3.0	3.0	2054	$2,695	$1.31	44d	1	1.24mi
2955 Country Place Cir Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,695	$1.53	7d	1	1.26mi
1815 Spring Ave Carrollton, TX	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	44d	1	1.27mi
2561 Fountain Cv Carrollton, TX	2.0	3.5	1725	$2,700	$1.57	8d	1	1.29mi
2600 Summertree Dr Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.0	2025	$2,750	$1.36	44d	1	1.32mi
2719 Creek Wood Ct Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,300	$1.43	5d	1	1.32mi
1814 Gravley Dr Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,000	$1.37	25d	1	1.36mi
2512 Melissa Ln Carrollton, TX	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,425	$1.34	8d	1	1.37mi
2703 Meadowstone Ct Carrollton, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,700	$1.55	44d	1	1.39mi
3170 Golfing Green Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$5,500	$3.07	44d	1	1.39mi
3560 Country Square Dr Carrollton, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,542	$1.60	0d	10	1.42mi
3131 Longmeade Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$2,300	$1.94	44d	1	1.42mi
3217 Squireswood Dr Carrollton, TX	2.0	2.0	2201	$2,800	$1.27	8d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $190,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-14
   listed $205,000 Active 664-char remark
5. 2026-05-05
   soldstatus
6. 1965-06-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,463 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,463 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$6,463
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813050
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $60,131
• Composite: 30.06/100
• National rank: #6350
• State rank: #518 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #2159

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 135,779
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,807
• Household income: $84,815
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1978.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 38% Vietnamese 3% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.99%
• Current HPI: 287.9888
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.71%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1965-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,463 · -11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.