505 Hubbard Ln · Williamsburg, VA 23185

$230,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1962 0.31 ac lot Est $395k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLID BRICK RANCH WITH CONVERTED GARAGE, FENCED YARD WITH STORAGE SHEDS, HARDWOOD FLOORS, FULL FIREPLACE, CEILING FANS, REPAINTING EXTERIOR.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Magruder Elementary (math 68% / reading 78%, grade A, #259 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 663 students, 47% FRL); Grafton High (math 74% / reading 93%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 1,212 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 15% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $230k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $395,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Hubbard Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$137	93
105 Glenn Cir	0.11mi	4/1.5	1,698 (+1%)	5mo	$379,000	$223	88
604 Musket Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,606 (-4%)	0mo	$387,000	$241	72
113 Hickory Hills Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,664 (-1%)	5mo	$374,900	$225	66
102 Springfield Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,675 (+0%)	2mo	$364,900	$218	62
117 W Semple Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,601 (-4%)	5mo	$268,000	$167	61
108 Burgundy Rd	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,720 (+3%)	3mo	$348,000	$202	58
105 Rusty Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,544 (-8%)	3mo	$365,000	$236	55
102 Bordeaux Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (-10%)	2mo	$367,000	$245	48
598 Burnham Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+9%)	4mo	$475,000	$260	45
104 Rusty Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,455 (-13%)	6mo	$348,000	$239	43
108 Chardonnay Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,467 (-12%)	3mo	$365,000	$249	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,017
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $69,597
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23185

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,113/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,871

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $592	+0% $527	+5% $462	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $427	+0% $527	+5% $627	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $643	-0.5pp $585	base $527	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
211 Hubbard Ln Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1267	$1,800	$1.42	17d	1	0.39mi
304 Brittania Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,650	$1.72	13d	1	0.46mi
104 Merlot Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1467	$2,350	$1.60	44d	1	0.51mi
112 Semple Rd Unit NA Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	2d	1	0.54mi
105 Chardonnay Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,895	$1.68	44d	1	0.57mi
612 Queens Creek Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2108	$2,495	$1.18	2d	1	0.76mi
1183 Penniman Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1098	$2,075	$1.89	2d	1	0.88mi
200 Mal Mae Ct Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,700	$1.73	2d	7	0.96mi
301 Starkey Pl Williamsburg, VA	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,995	$1.38	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-02
   listed $230,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,113
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $2,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$658
• After-tax cash flow: $5,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamsburg City · 55,270 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,270
• Household income: $105,431
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 240.1637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+194.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $230,000 REINMLS
• 2003-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $112,900 Public Records
• 2003-02-21 Sold (MLS) $112,900 WMLS
• 2002-12-18 Listed $112,900 WMLS
• 1997-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,113 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.