104 Brierwood Dr · Pine Harbor, TX 75657

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 241 Days on market

Built 1985 0.29 ac lot $13/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy and Affordable Home at Lake O’ the Pines. Step into this renovated, move-in ready home. With 1,344 square feet of well-designed living space, this home blends functionality with affordability. The open kitchen/dining area connects seamlessly to a spacious living room, while the bedroom and bathroom serves the layout smartly. If needed, you can also easily make the living area a spacious second bedroom with space to still have a dining table and living space in the open kitchen/dining area. Outside, the manageable yard offers peace of mind and minimal upkeep — perfect for buyers looking for an easy-living lifestyle. The covered entry adds a welcoming touch and provides a spot to enjoy fresh air in shade. Lastly, the metal outbuilding provides great storage for all your outdoor lawn maintenance and storage needs. Located just minutes from town, you’ll be a short drive to Jefferson’s local shops, schools, and community spots. This home is ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a weekend getaway at Lake O’ the Pines.

Key facts

• Minutes from town
• Manageable yard
• Metal outbuilding

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• COVERED ENTRY
• METAL OUTBUILDING
• MINUTES FROM TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($860 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,494 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 275 students, 75% FRL); Jefferson J H (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 333 students, 73% FRL); Jefferson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 380 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 43% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.18%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $11,664
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $36,646
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75657

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $380/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $339	+0% $323	+5% $308	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $289	+0% $323	+5% $357	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $337	base $323	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $55,000 Pending 241 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $55,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-03-25
   price $55,000 1086-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

   Cozy and Affordable Home at Lake O’ the Pines. Step into this renovated, move-in ready home. With 1,344 square feet of well-designed living space, this home blends functionality with affordability. The open kitchen/dining area connects seamlessly to a spacious living room, while the bedroom and bathroom serves the layout smartly. If needed, you can also easily make the living area a spacious second bedroom with space to still have a dining table and living space in the open kitchen/dining area. Outside, the manageable yard offers peace of mind and minimal upkeep — perfect for buyers looking for an easy-living lifestyle. The covered entry adds a welcoming touch and provides a spot to enjoy fresh air in shade. Lastly, the metal outbuilding provides great storage for all your outdoor lawn maintenance and storage needs. Located just minutes from town, you’ll be a short drive to Jefferson’s local shops, schools, and community spots. This home is ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a weekend getaway at Lake O’ the Pines.

5. 2026-03-02
   price $74,500 1086-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

   Cozy and Affordable Home at Lake O’ the Pines. Step into this renovated, move-in ready home. With 1,344 square feet of well-designed living space, this home blends functionality with affordability. The open kitchen/dining area connects seamlessly to a spacious living room, while the bedroom and bathroom serves the layout smartly. If needed, you can also easily make the living area a spacious second bedroom with space to still have a dining table and living space in the open kitchen/dining area. Outside, the manageable yard offers peace of mind and minimal upkeep — perfect for buyers looking for an easy-living lifestyle. The covered entry adds a welcoming touch and provides a spot to enjoy fresh air in shade. Lastly, the metal outbuilding provides great storage for all your outdoor lawn maintenance and storage needs. Located just minutes from town, you’ll be a short drive to Jefferson’s local shops, schools, and community spots. This home is ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a weekend getaway at Lake O’ the Pines.

6. 2025-10-03
   listed $79,500 Active 1086-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

   Cozy and Affordable Home at Lake O’ the Pines. Step into this renovated, move-in ready home. With 1,344 square feet of well-designed living space, this home blends functionality with affordability. The open kitchen/dining area connects seamlessly to a spacious living room, while the bedroom and bathroom serves the layout smartly. If needed, you can also easily make the living area a spacious second bedroom with space to still have a dining table and living space in the open kitchen/dining area. Outside, the manageable yard offers peace of mind and minimal upkeep — perfect for buyers looking for an easy-living lifestyle. The covered entry adds a welcoming touch and provides a spot to enjoy fresh air in shade. Lastly, the metal outbuilding provides great storage for all your outdoor lawn maintenance and storage needs. Located just minutes from town, you’ll be a short drive to Jefferson’s local shops, schools, and community spots. This home is ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a weekend getaway at Lake O’ the Pines.

7. 2023-07-24
   soldstatus
8. 2020-05-22
   soldstatus
9. 2018-09-13
   soldstatus
10. 2006-01-13
    soldstatus
11. 2002-03-11
    soldstatus
12. 1998-10-14
    soldstatus
13. 1996-04-04
    soldstatus
14. 1996-03-14
    soldstatus
15. 1990-06-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 164.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$380
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$825
• − Management: −$825
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $3,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,504
• Composite: 22.93/100
• National rank: #7992
• State rank: #689 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Harbor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1494
• US rank: #25521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Harbor, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,842

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,339 people
• By 2030: 8,881 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 8,044 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 7,449 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,638 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 5,871 · -37.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.4% · R 75.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+43.1 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.60%
• Current HPI: 126.2671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $55,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $74,500 LAAR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $79,500 LAAR
• 2023-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $380 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.