204 16th St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$233,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 204 16th Street! The Elk offers a spacious single-story layout with 1621 square feet designed for comfortable and efficient everyday living. This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with an open-concept family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and centrally located kitchen-creating an inviting space for gathering and entertaining. The kitchen includes ample counter space, a pantry, and convenient access to the nearby laundry room for added functionality. The private primary bedroom is thoughtfully tucked away and includes a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom, providing a relaxing retreat. Three additional bedrooms are positioned near a secondary bathroom, ma

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• ATTACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $233,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property (The Elk plan)
• Exterior features: Living area 1621

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (The Elk plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $187,541 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $118,837
• Equity at exit: $210,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $356,796
• Equity at exit: $454,591

Cash invested: $65,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$292 /mo · $3,510/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $214,386

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,498
• Closing costs: $7,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	0.10mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	13d	1	0.21mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	44d	1	0.38mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	14d	1	0.39mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.40mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	0.40mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	0.40mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	0.42mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.42mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	14d	1	0.42mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	44d	1	0.42mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	0.43mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	44d	1	0.44mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	14d	1	0.46mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	44d	1	0.47mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	0.54mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	0.54mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	44d	1	0.59mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.60mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	0.65mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	13d	2	0.91mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	44d	1	0.91mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	13d	1	1.16mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	13d	1	1.19mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	44d	1	1.38mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	1.44mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	44d	1	1.46mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,990 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,990 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,990 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $233,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $233,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,107
• − Property taxes: −$3,510
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,807
• Taxable loss: −$5,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-story home requires significant updates to its interior and exterior, including painting, flooring, and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and functionality
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B