11573 Thistle Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76247

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1998 1.00 ac lot Est $276k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1-0 BUY DOWN AVAILABLE with FHA and conventional with preferred lender !!! Welcome to this beautifully remodeled mobile home, perfectly blending comfort, style, and convenience. Sitting on a spacious 1-acre lot in Justin, Texas, this property offers the freedom of no HOA and a peaceful country setting just minutes from Texas Motor Speedway and local amenities. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, thoughtfully updated to create a modern and inviting living space. Step inside to find fresh interior and exterior paint that gives the home a bright, clean feel. Brand-new flooring runs throughout, adding warmth and durability, while the newly installed windows bring in abundant natur

Key facts

• Spacious 1 acre lot
• Brand new flooring
• No hoa

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS 1 ACRE LOT
• NO HOA
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• NEWLY INSTALLED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions and pet restrictions apply; Black trailer parked in the back will be removed before closing
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowner association

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking spaces; Covered parking not provided; Carport spaces not provided; Gravel parking area; Direct access to parking
• Security: Video surveillance present
• Utilities: Co-op electric service; Electricity available and connected; Private water; Private sewer; Septic
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Approximately 1 acre lot; Gravel surfaces; Additional parking; Direct access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approx. 12 x 13; Bedroom (level 1) — approx. 10 x 10; Bedroom (level 1) — approx. 12 x 10
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (level 1) — approx. 12 x 8; Bathroom (level 1) — approx. 10 x 5
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; Seven total rooms; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clara Love El (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 766 students, 50% FRL); Gene Pike Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,150 students, 29% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,759 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,520
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12138 Thistle Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	21mo	$199,900	$178	58
18756 Doubletree Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	11mo	$299,000	$246	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-43,945
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-54,913
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1516
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $574/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,995

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $173	+0% $97	+5% $20	+10% $-380
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $13	+0% $97	+5% $180	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $165	base $97	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16661 Woodside Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,809	$1.31	26d	1	0.83mi
1705 Diamond Lake Trl Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	45d	1	0.86mi
16824 Pinery Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,899	$1.38	0d	1	1.00mi
16701 Windthorst Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,950	$1.42	45d	1	1.01mi
1104 Highway 114 Justin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,305	$2.46	0d	15	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $270,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $270,000 Active
16. 2025-10-01
    historical
17. 2025-10-01
    historical $1,995
18. 2025-09-19
    listed $260,000 Active
19. 2025-08-30
    listed $1,995
20. 2025-06-07
    historical
21. 2025-05-01
    status Active
22. 2025-03-04
    historical
23. 2025-02-01
    listed $260,000
24. 2020-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,367/yr (+$364/mo · 761.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$574
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $2,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Rental Removed $1,995 NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-30 Listed for Rent $1,995 NTREIS
• 2025-06-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $574 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.