114 Main St · Germantown, NY 12526

$875,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1850 0.46 ac lot Est $1323k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Germantown 1850's Dutch Colonial. This light filled hamlet home has just been thoughtfully renovated, combining new with antique touches. The air conditioned first floor includes an open living area featuring a wonderful kitchen with marble & black walnut countertops, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances, & hardwood floors. First floor masterbedroom suite. Second floor has 3 guest bedrooms with wideboard floors & a full bath. Nice size back deck. Tin sided outbuilding. On just over a half acre with plenty of room to garden & enjoy the outdoors. Located on Main Street and within easy walking distance to Germantown amenities. Truly a move-in home.,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,FOUNDATION:Stone,Masonry,FLOORING:Tile,Wood,AboveGrade:2000

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Open floor plan
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• PRIVATE FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 6 vehicles; 6 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Propane; Cable connected; Trash collection (private); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Crawl space attic; Basement with Bilco door(s)
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Back yard fencing; Deck; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Marble counters; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Marble counters; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master suite on main level; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer hookup; Wood-framed windows; Deck (patio/porch feature)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $875k).
• Recommended offer: $862k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Germantown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 276 students, 41% FRL); Germantown Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #905 of 1,100 statewide, top 83%, 209 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $88k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$150k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($862k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $546k; list at $875k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $861,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.75%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,323,280
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Main St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,450 (+3%)	20mo	$925,000	$378	64
23 Underhill Lane Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,400 (+1%)	16mo	$420,000	$175	61
1246 Woods Rd	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,165 (-9%)	9mo	$1,630,000	$753	47
495 Hover Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,700 (+13%)	21mo	$1,500,000	$556	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $655,428
• Equity at exit: $788,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $1,789,638
• Equity at exit: $1,699,933

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$929 /mo · $11,151/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,310
• Net cashflow: $2,808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,446

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,303	-5% $3,055	+0% $2,808	+5% $2,560	+10% $2,312
Rent	-10% $1,939	-5% $2,373	+0% $2,808	+5% $3,242	+10% $3,677
Rate	-1.0pp $3,248	-0.5pp $3,030	base $2,808	+0.5pp $2,581	+1.0pp $2,350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 E Camp Rd Germantown, NY	3.0	2.0	2624	$11,000	$4.19	22d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $875,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $875,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $875,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $875,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $875,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $875,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $875,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $875,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $875,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $875,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $875,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $875,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 680-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $875,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,151 · $929/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,969 · $1,081/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,818/yr (+$152/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $132,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$11,151
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,560
• − Management: −$10,560
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable income: $20,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,013
• After-tax cash flow: $28,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+893.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $545,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-23 Sold (MLS) $545,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Listed $585,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-30 Listed $595,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Listed $189,000 HVCRMLS
• 2004-04-14 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Global MLS
• 2004-01-30 Listed $109,000 Global MLS
• 2000-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $88,065 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,151 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.