4042 Larkspur Dr · Dayton, OH 45406

$109,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1952 6,151 sqft lot $115/sqft · 66% above area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for a turn-key rental or a first-time homebuyer! This recently remodeled home offers modern updates while maintaining classic charm. The downstairs bedroom features a huge walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage space. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout the home, complemented by stylish recessed lighting that adds a bright, modern feel. This property would be a great long-term investment or future owner-occupied home.

Key facts

• 6,151 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,813
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: 65.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4075 Middlehurst Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	979 (+3%)	2mo	$89,900	$92	86
3971 Prescott Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+7%)	2mo	$77,500	$76	79
3920 Prescott Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+7%)	3mo	$50,000	$49	75
3816 Lori Sue Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	925 (-3%)	3mo	$152,000	$164	75
3927 Necco Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	936 (-2%)	2mo	$72,500	$77	74
3921 Middlehurst Ln	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+7%)	4mo	$120,000	$118	73
1906 Kensington Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+9%)	5mo	$82,000	$79	59
2451 Grant Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+11%)	3mo	$75,000	$71	57
2660 Grant Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	912 (-4%)	2mo	$78,000	$86	57
2504 Grant Ave	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+11%)	1mo	$95,000	$90	53
2826 W Hillcrest Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	898 (-6%)	5mo	$95,000	$106	52
4647 Greenwich Village Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,057 (+11%)	5mo	$20,000	$19	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-8,476
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,475
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $873

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $175	+0% $144	+5% $113	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $102	+0% $144	+5% $186	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $172	base $144	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1720 Kings Mill Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	975	$925	$0.95	25d	1	0.35mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.36mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	25d	1	0.37mi
3537 Otterbein Ave Unit d Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	45d	1	0.43mi
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	45d	1	0.47mi
1732 Harold Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	805	$925	$1.15	45d	1	0.47mi
3650 Otterbein Ave Unit 3650 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	4d	1	0.50mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	4d	1	0.50mi
3652 Otterbein Ave Unit 3652 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	0.50mi
3311 Otterbein Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1004	$1,300	$1.29	13d	1	0.53mi
4629 Queens Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.57mi
3552 Stanford Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	25d	1	0.66mi
3552 Stanford Pl Unit 3552 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	45d	1	0.66mi
2109 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	5d	1	0.72mi
2002 Val Vista Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	23d	1	0.76mi
2014 Hickorydale Dr Unit 2016 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	45d	1	0.81mi
3007 Cornell Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	827	$1,000	$1.21	5d	1	0.90mi
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	25d	1	0.94mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	45d	1	1.04mi
3220 Princeton Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.04mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	45d	1	1.09mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	5d	1	1.09mi
3222 Athens Ave Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	45d	1	1.18mi
829 Uhrig Ave Unit 3 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	760	$875	$1.15	16d	1	1.18mi
1004 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1053	$950	$0.90	25d	1	1.22mi
1816 N James H McGee Blvd Unit C Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	4d	1	1.23mi
1816 N James H McGee Blvd Apt B Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	1.23mi
1816 N James H McGee Blvd Apt A Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.23mi
1019 Cherry Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1057	$1,125	$1.06	45d	1	1.27mi
4576 Live Oak Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	45d	1	1.31mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	4d	1	1.33mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	5d	1	1.37mi
920 Huron Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$995	$1.05	5d	1	1.43mi
628 W Norman Ave Unit 628 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	918	$795	$0.87	45d	1	1.46mi
2333 Rustic Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	45d	1	1.49mi
2333 Rustic Rd Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $109,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great opportunity for a turn-key rental or a first-time homebuyer! This recently remodeled home offers modern updates while maintaining classic charm. The downstairs bedroom features a huge walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage space. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout the home, complemented by stylish recessed lighting that adds a bright, modern feel. This property would be a great long-term investment or future owner-occupied home.

18. 2026-05-01
    historical ActiveUnderContract 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great opportunity for a turn-key rental or a first-time homebuyer! This recently remodeled home offers modern updates while maintaining classic charm. The downstairs bedroom features a huge walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage space. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout the home, complemented by stylish recessed lighting that adds a bright, modern feel. This property would be a great long-term investment or future owner-occupied home.

19. 2026-04-14
    price $109,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great opportunity for a turn-key rental or a first-time homebuyer! This recently remodeled home offers modern updates while maintaining classic charm. The downstairs bedroom features a huge walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage space. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout the home, complemented by stylish recessed lighting that adds a bright, modern feel. This property would be a great long-term investment or future owner-occupied home.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $115,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great opportunity for a turn-key rental or a first-time homebuyer! This recently remodeled home offers modern updates while maintaining classic charm. The downstairs bedroom features a huge walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage space. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout the home, complemented by stylish recessed lighting that adds a bright, modern feel. This property would be a great long-term investment or future owner-occupied home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 47.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$55
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $1,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $109,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $115,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.