22207 Holly Branch Dr · Houston, TX 77375

$279,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2004 6,433 sqft lot $105/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contemporary, quality-built home in fantastic Willow Dell subdivision. Located directly across the street from greenbelt area and nearby playground! Interior features an open living plan with lots of room to stretch out, huge kitchen (new stainless steel appliances, with lots of storage and prep space), second breakfast bar for entertaining. Sit in the cool shade under the covered back porch and appreciate your large backyard. Enjoy the cozy fireplace in the living room, and the huge master bedroom with large master bathroom (with separate tub and shower), and a convenient 2nd living space upstairs. House also features two brand new AC units, replaced less than a year ago, for long term pe

Key facts

• Front porch
• Greenbelt area
• Open living plan

Tags

• GREENBELT AREA
• OPEN LIVING PLAN
• HUGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Willow Dell Homeowner's Association; Community with curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Greenbelt lot feature; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Bedrooms: 10 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Attic fan; HVAC energy-efficient features; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Schultz El (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 566 students, 61% FRL); Krimmel Intermed (math 51% / reading 52%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,294 students, 42% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 666 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,112 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,984
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -3.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22022 Willow Downs Dr	0.17mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,765 (+4%)	0mo	$289,900	$105	81
21930 Willow Shadows Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,500 (-6%)	2mo	$304,995	$122	73
22223 Singleleaf Ln	0.26mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,799 (+5%)	3mo	$305,000	$109	72
22506 Willow Branch Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-12%)	2mo	$310,000	$132	69
22403 Hollybranch Drive Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,309 (-13%)	2mo	$285,000	$123	68
22611 August Leaf Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,366 (-11%)	5mo	$325,000	$137	64
8203 Rudy Brook Way	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,603 (-2%)	3mo	$329,999	$127	63
22626 August Leaf Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,338 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$113	63
8227 Palmetta Spring Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,444 (-8%)	2mo	$364,325	$149	54
8323 Rudy Brook Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,462 (-8%)	3mo	$318,500	$129	52
8206 Sierra Dawn Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,328 (-13%)	1mo	$295,000	$127	50
8327 Terra Valley Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,454 (-8%)	3mo	$299,990	$122	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-59,425
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-90,013
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 666
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,734 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$682 /mo · $8,178/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,862

Max offer price $261,112

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-22	+0% $-101	+5% $-180	+10% $-259
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-209	+0% $-101	+5% $7	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-30	base $-101	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 410 Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,649	$1.31	45d	1	1.09mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 304 Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2015	$2,609	$1.29	45d	1	1.14mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr #610 Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,459	$1.32	45d	1	1.14mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 223 Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2015	$2,579	$1.28	45d	1	1.21mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Tomball, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1739	$3,405	$1.96	0d	1	1.22mi
7801 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1314	$2,970	$2.26	0d	38	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $279,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $295,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-15
   price $311,999 715-char remark
10. 2026-05-13
    price $314,999 715-char remark
11. 2026-05-13
    price $319,999 715-char remark
12. 2026-05-08
    price $329,999 715-char remark
13. 2026-05-07
    price $334,999 715-char remark
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $339,999 Active 715-char remark
15. 2001-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,178 · $682/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,178 · $682/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$8,178
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,624
• − Management: −$2,624
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$5,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $304,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $311,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $314,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $319,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $329,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $334,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $339,999 HARMLS
• 2001-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,178 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.