109 Seminole Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$259,970

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2022 6,250 sqft lot Est $298k · 13% under $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice lot in a well-established neighborhood. Fast-growing area, close to great restaurants and popular stores.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Bright kitchen
• Modern cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN CABINETRY
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Lake Conroe Forest Owners Association; Annual association fee of $125

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank options
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on slab foundation; Built in 2022
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,070 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16350 Eastchase St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,842 (+3%)	2mo	$165,000	$90	82
1608 Mohawk Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (+6%)	2mo	$500,000	$264	60
907 Columbia River Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,784 (0%)	1mo	$383,000	$215	60
537 Mohawk Bnd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+8%)	5mo	$300,000	$156	59
112 Quiet Wind Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (-7%)	1mo	$258,000	$156	59
101 Fairway View Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,905 (+7%)	1mo	$379,500	$199	57
132 Golfview Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+0%)	4mo	$299,000	$167	57
110 Rustling Wind Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (-8%)	11mo	$260,000	$159	53
16778 Meadowcroft St	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,565 (-12%)	7mo	$232,900	$149	52
165 April Wind Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-11%)	10mo	$275,000	$174	51
70 April Wind Dr S	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,012 (+13%)	10mo	$320,000	$159	50
119 Fairway View Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-15%)	7mo	$286,500	$189	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-16,056
• Equity at exit: $38,762

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,063
• Equity at exit: $22,477

Cash invested: $72,792 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $259,970

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $662	-5% $588	+0% $515	+5% $144	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $413	+0% $515	+5% $617	+10% $719
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $581	base $515	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,992
• Closing costs: $7,799
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	45d	1	0.53mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	45d	1	0.60mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	45d	1	0.87mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	45d	1	0.90mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	45d	1	0.93mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	45d	1	0.93mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	45d	1	1.13mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	45d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,970 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,970 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,970 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,970 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,970 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,970 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,970 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,970 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,970 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,970 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,970 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 687-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $259,970 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,757 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,233/yr (+$353/mo · 807.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,562
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,479
• − Management: −$2,479
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable income: $1,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $5,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+442.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $259,970 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Rental Removed $1,697 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,697 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-03 Rental Removed $1,697 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,697 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Rental Removed $1,697 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-05 Listed for Rent $1,697 APPFOLIO
• 2022-06-28 Price Changed $1,997 RENT.
• 2022-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-01-11 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $47,900 HARMLS
• 1996-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $525 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.