12671 Taymouth Manor Dr #6 · Atascocita, TX 77346

$278,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,941 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 380 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 1,870 sqft lot $143/sqft · 20% below area Est $348k · 20% under $268/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful maintained townhouse! Located in the Balmoral Master Planned Community. Parks, pools, and the Crystal Clear Lagoon, with two white sand beaches and so much more. This townhouse features: Downstairs an open floor plan with the living area opens to dining and wonderful size Kitchen and serving bar. Large walk in pantry, fridge to convey with the sale of home. Half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs you have the primary suite with an ensuite bathroom. The secondary bedrooms are very spacious with walk-in closets. Hall bathroom has a dressing area. Laundry room upstairs , washer and dryer stays with home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Crystal clear lagoon

Tags

• CRYSTAL CLEAR LAGOON
• TWO WHITE SAND BEACHES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 32% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,745 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.11%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,026
• List price: $278,000
• Delta: -20.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16426 Apache Woods Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,930 (-1%)	3mo	$364,900	$189	82
12007 Texas Trumpet Trl S	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+2%)	2mo	$385,000	$194	79
15806 Black Grouse Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+2%)	5mo	$333,265	$169	79
12226 Castano Creek Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-11%)	0mo	$329,900	$191	76
15710 Cairnwell Bend Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,024 (+4%)	2mo	$325,000	$161	72
15810 Black Grouse Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+5%)	4mo	$340,000	$166	68
15814 Black Grouse Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-10%)	3mo	$309,990	$177	66
12826 Crombie Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,075 (+7%)	5mo	$315,000	$152	60
15627 Countesswells Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+8%)	2mo	$319,900	$152	60
12511 Albright Grove Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,152 (+11%)	1mo	$369,900	$172	50
12403 Palo Acebo Ln	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,170 (+12%)	5mo	$369,950	$170	42
12931 Ilderton Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,185 (+13%)	5mo	$300,000	$137	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-68,570
• Equity at exit: $67,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-115,092
• Equity at exit: $71,632

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$720 /mo · $8,637/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$268
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,242

Max offer price $172,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-499	-5% $-577	+0% $-656	+5% $-735	+10% $-813
Rent	-10% $-847	-5% $-751	+0% $-656	+5% $-561	+10% $-465
Rate	-1.0pp $-516	-0.5pp $-585	base $-656	+0.5pp $-728	+1.0pp $-801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	26d	1	0.37mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$2,099	$1.28	0d	35	0.50mi
12626 Gallowhill Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,295	$1.53	1d	1	0.54mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	45d	1	0.57mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	5d	1	0.57mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	45d	1	0.74mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	12d	1	0.81mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,094	$1.39	1d	1	0.81mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	5d	16	0.85mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	0.89mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	7d	1	1.00mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	4d	1	1.13mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	1d	1	1.14mi
14935 Moonlight Mist Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,200	$2.27	5d	21	1.30mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	1.34mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3047 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,750	$1.31	1d	1	1.48mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3174 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,750	$1.31	13d	1	1.48mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3148 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,699	$1.27	1d	1	1.48mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 14840 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,750	$1.31	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $268 · $3,216/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-05-14
   listed $278,000 Active 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Beautiful maintained townhouse! Located in the Balmoral Master Planned Community. Parks, pools, and the Crystal Clear Lagoon, with two white sand beaches and so much more. This townhouse features: Downstairs an open floor plan with the living area opens to dining and wonderful size Kitchen and serving bar. Large walk in pantry, fridge to convey with the sale of home. Half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs you have the primary suite with an ensuite bathroom. The secondary bedrooms are very spacious with walk-in closets. Hall bathroom has a dressing area. Laundry room upstairs , washer and dryer stays with home.

2. 2021-04-02
   soldstatus Sold 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Proudly introducing HistoryMaker Homes to the Houston community. With over 70 years of experience building homes in the Dallas/Ft Worth area, this family owned company has provided More Home for Less Money for thousands of families. Balmoral in Humble offers residents a community where the amenities are second to none. Enjoy the world class Crystal Lagoon, the first of its kind in Texas, zero entry pool, trail system and parks throughout. This interior Crockett plan boasts a welcoming covered entry, full sod and an irrigation system. The U-shaped kitchen is open to the familty room and features espresso colored cabinetry, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, a large pantry, and luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is located on the second floor and features a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a 60" shower. The secondary bedrooms are located in the rear of the home and boast large walk-in closets as well. The laundry is conveniently located on the second floor.

3. 2021-03-25
   status Pending 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Proudly introducing HistoryMaker Homes to the Houston community. With over 70 years of experience building homes in the Dallas/Ft Worth area, this family owned company has provided More Home for Less Money for thousands of families. Balmoral in Humble offers residents a community where the amenities are second to none. Enjoy the world class Crystal Lagoon, the first of its kind in Texas, zero entry pool, trail system and parks throughout. This interior Crockett plan boasts a welcoming covered entry, full sod and an irrigation system. The U-shaped kitchen is open to the familty room and features espresso colored cabinetry, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, a large pantry, and luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is located on the second floor and features a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a 60" shower. The secondary bedrooms are located in the rear of the home and boast large walk-in closets as well. The laundry is conveniently located on the second floor.

4. 2021-02-08
   price $209,490 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Proudly introducing HistoryMaker Homes to the Houston community. With over 70 years of experience building homes in the Dallas/Ft Worth area, this family owned company has provided More Home for Less Money for thousands of families. Balmoral in Humble offers residents a community where the amenities are second to none. Enjoy the world class Crystal Lagoon, the first of its kind in Texas, zero entry pool, trail system and parks throughout. This interior Crockett plan boasts a welcoming covered entry, full sod and an irrigation system. The U-shaped kitchen is open to the familty room and features espresso colored cabinetry, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, a large pantry, and luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is located on the second floor and features a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a 60" shower. The secondary bedrooms are located in the rear of the home and boast large walk-in closets as well. The laundry is conveniently located on the second floor.

5. 2021-01-14
   listed $208,490 Active 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Proudly introducing HistoryMaker Homes to the Houston community. With over 70 years of experience building homes in the Dallas/Ft Worth area, this family owned company has provided More Home for Less Money for thousands of families. Balmoral in Humble offers residents a community where the amenities are second to none. Enjoy the world class Crystal Lagoon, the first of its kind in Texas, zero entry pool, trail system and parks throughout. This interior Crockett plan boasts a welcoming covered entry, full sod and an irrigation system. The U-shaped kitchen is open to the familty room and features espresso colored cabinetry, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, a large pantry, and luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is located on the second floor and features a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a 60" shower. The secondary bedrooms are located in the rear of the home and boast large walk-in closets as well. The laundry is conveniently located on the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,637 · $720/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,637 · $720/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$8,637
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − HOA: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$12,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in Balmoral offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can increase appeal and value
• Resale New kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can enhance the kitchen's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can increase appeal and value ↑
• Resale New kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can enhance the kitchen's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-14 Listed $278,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-08 Price Changed $209,490 HARMLS
• 2021-01-14 Listed $208,490 HARMLS

Property tax history

+53.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,637 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.