34065 Shaver Springs Rd · Auberry, CA 93602

$295,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,915 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1981 8,001 sqft lot Est $370k · 20% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just 15 minutes from Shaver Lake, 34065 Shaver Springs Road in Auberry offers incredible mountain value. This spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom cabin features 1,939 square feet of living space on an 8,000 square foot lot. Move-in ready, the layout includes a bright living area with a fireplace, unique hydronic radiator heating, and upstairs laundry. The functional kitchen and baths are ready for updates, and the wrap-around deck needs repair or replacement, presenting a perfect canvas to build instant equity. Outside, enjoy views of the community pond, huge under-house storage, and highly coveted RV or boat parking. There is no central AC, leaving a great opportunity for mini-splits. Sold as

Key facts

• Rv or boat parking
• Under-house storage
• Wrap-around deck

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• COMMUNITY POND
• UNDER-HOUSE STORAGE
• RV OR BOAT PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee of $50; Community includes a lake/pond

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service on; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Two-story single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood subfloor foundation; Composition roof; No solar
• Exterior features: Mountain-view lot; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 100

Interior

• Bedrooms: Upper-level laundry (bedrooms not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2.5 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Free-standing fireplace; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on upper level with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($46/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Auberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#982 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $253,423 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,595
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33855 Shaver Springs Rd	0.19mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,899 (-1%)	3mo	$377,000	$199	77
34139 Shaver Springs Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-5%)	19mo	$350,000	$193	68
33815 Shaver Springs Rd	0.21mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,860 (-3%)	18mo	$210,000	$113	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,547
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-41,036
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93602

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,340/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,529

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $295,000 Active
17. 2023-09-09
    status Active
18. 2023-09-09
    price $335,000
19. 2023-09-09
    historical
20. 2023-09-08
    historical
21. 2023-08-22
    price $375,000
22. 2023-08-11
    price $375,000
23. 2023-08-01
    listed $390,000 Active
24. 2023-07-22
    listed $390,000 Active
25. 2021-10-22
    price $279,000
26. 2021-10-22
    listed $279,000 Active
27. 2021-10-22
    historical
28. 2021-10-22
    status Active
29. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $290,000 Sold
30. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $290,000
31. 2021-08-04
    status Pending
32. 2021-08-04
    price $290,000
33. 2021-06-07
    price $279,000
34. 2021-06-04
    status Active
35. 2021-05-25
    status Pending
36. 2021-05-14
    status Active
37. 2021-05-10
    status Backup
38. 2021-04-22
    price $270,000
39. 2021-03-17
    price $299,000
40. 2021-03-05
    listed $309,000 Active
41. 1995-06-01
    soldstatus $97,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,340 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,340 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,340
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,433
• − Management: −$2,433
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Auberry

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #24661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auberry, CA
• City population: 3,091
• Population (ZIP): 3,091

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.97%
• Current HPI: 244.699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+202.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $295,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2023-09-09 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2023-09-09 Price Changed $335,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2023-09-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-08 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $375,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $375,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-01 Listed $390,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-22 Listed $390,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $279,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-10-22 Listed $279,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-10-22 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-10-22 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-13 Sold (MLS) $290,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-08-04 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-08-04 Price Changed $290,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-06-07 Price Changed $279,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-06-04 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-05-25 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-05-14 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-05-10 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-04-22 Price Changed $270,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-03-17 Price Changed $299,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-03-05 Listed $309,000 FRESNOMLS
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,340 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.