9263 Grace Ridge Dr · Willis, TX 77318

$257,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,940 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 4,070 sqft lot $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills, in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills is conveniently located off of I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground, and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Lowry floor plan is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the first-floor common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with quartz countertops, a sep

Key facts

• Pavilion
• Resort style pool
• Community playground

Tags

• PAVILION
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• BOARDWALK ALONG THE WATER
• PRIVACY BLINDS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Associa PMG Group; Annual association fee of $825; Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Faces north; Slab foundation; Single-family style (2-story implied by room levels)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (14'x20'); Bedroom on second level (12'x13'); Bedroom on second level (13'x10'); Bedroom on second level (12'x10')
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pantry; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Programmable thermostat; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($490/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,105 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,481
• Equity at exit: $38,467

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-60,520
• Equity at exit: $22,306

Cash invested: $72,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,265/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $257,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $114	+0% $41	+5% $-32	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-43	+0% $41	+5% $125	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $106	base $41	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,498
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,455	$1.30	0d	6	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $257,990
3. 2026-03-04
   listed $270,951 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,721 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,456/yr (+$288/mo · 273.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,451
• − Property taxes: −$1,265
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$3,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$950
• After-tax cash flow: $1,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $257,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $270,951 HARMLS

Property tax history

-14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,265 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.