306 Walker St · Lexington, VA 24450

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 999 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1956 7,841 sqft lot Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming cottage with the white picket fence, located within walking distance to all your favorite spots, offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath , beautiful hardwood floors, recent updates include windows and roof . Enjoy sipping coffee in the sun room overlooking the park-like backyard with many flowers and trees. This home would make a great investment , first time home or down sizing . Don't miss this great value!--

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Front and back yard
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• FRONT AND BACK YARD
• PATIO SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-364/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#62 in VA, #1,813 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington City Public School District (town): math 82% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #4 of 131 in VA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harrington Waddell Elementary (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #71 of 1,108 statewide, top 8%, 324 students, 32% FRL); Lylburn Downing Middle (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #14 of 342 statewide, top 4%, 161 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Lexington city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,111 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,791
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Summit St	0.03mi	2/1.0	972 (-3%)	5mo	$210,000	$216	90
301 Walker St	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,147 (+15%)	1mo	$217,000	$189	69
209 Taylor St	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,011 (+1%)	20mo	$145,000	$143	62
713 Thornhill Rd NW	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,031 (+3%)	2mo	$208,800	$203	62
405 Arpia St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (-5%)	24mo	$198,900	$209	62
102 Houston St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-6%)	16mo	$290,000	$310	58
805 S Main St	0.57mi	2/1.0	884 (-12%)	2mo	$200,000	$226	53
18 N Lewis St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,064 (+6%)	14mo	$350,000	$329	46
115 Davidson St	0.44mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	20mo	$180,000	$208	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-34,237
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,543
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24450

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $193,646

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $26	+0% $-30	+5% $-87	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-91	+0% $-30	+5% $30	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $20	base $-30	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 S Jefferson St Lexington, VA	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	17d	1	0.58mi
203 Myers St Apt B Lexington, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	17d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2024-06-17
   soldstatus $165,000
4. 2024-06-14
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Charming cottage with the white picket fence, located within walking distance to all your favorite spots, offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath , beautiful hardwood floors, recent updates include windows and roof . Enjoy sipping coffee in the sun room overlooking the park-like backyard with many flowers and trees. This home would make a great investment , first time home or down sizing . Don't miss this great value!--

5. 2024-03-27
   status Pending 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Charming cottage with the white picket fence, located within walking distance to all your favorite spots, offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath , beautiful hardwood floors, recent updates include windows and roof . Enjoy sipping coffee in the sun room overlooking the park-like backyard with many flowers and trees. This home would make a great investment , first time home or down sizing . Don't miss this great value!--

6. 2024-03-22
   listed $158,880 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Charming cottage with the white picket fence, located within walking distance to all your favorite spots, offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath , beautiful hardwood floors, recent updates include windows and roof . Enjoy sipping coffee in the sun room overlooking the park-like backyard with many flowers and trees. This home would make a great investment , first time home or down sizing . Don't miss this great value!--

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$271/yr (+$23/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$926
• After-tax cash flow: $562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102220
• Math proficiency: 82% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 88% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,249
• Composite: 70.57/100
• National rank: #258
• State rank: #4 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1813

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, VA
• County: Rockbridge County · 17,714 people
• City population: 17,714
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,714
• Household income: $76,587
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,814 people
• By 2030: 9,156 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 9,636 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 10,345 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 12,696 · +44.0%
• By 2100: 14,268 · +61.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 62.7% · R 36.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.0 2016: D+30.6 2012: D+12.6 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.84%
• Current HPI: 283.7394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+25.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — RHR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $199,000 RHR
• 2024-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) $165,000 RHR
• 2024-03-27 Pending — RHR
• 2024-03-22 Listed $158,880 RHR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.