1511 Lowery Ln · Jackson, MS 39209

$70,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1968 10,018 sqft lot $40/sqft · 44% below area Est $126k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this 5 bedroom 2 bath home in Westland Heights. 5 bedrooms in this price range are RARE!!! 4 traditional bedrooms and another in an enclosed garage. come see this one before it is gone!!!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,454/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1627% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.71%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,407
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -44.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $80,499
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.40×
• Total profit: $203,794
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39209

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Come see this 5 bedroom 2 bath home in Westland Heights. 5 bedrooms in this price range are RARE!!! 4 traditional bedrooms and another in an enclosed garage. come see this one before it is gone!!!

18. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Come see this 5 bedroom 2 bath home in Westland Heights. 5 bedrooms in this price range are RARE!!! 4 traditional bedrooms and another in an enclosed garage. come see this one before it is gone!!!

19. 2026-03-19
    listed $75,000 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Come see this 5 bedroom 2 bath home in Westland Heights. 5 bedrooms in this price range are RARE!!! 4 traditional bedrooms and another in an enclosed garage. come see this one before it is gone!!!

20. 1997-10-31
    soldstatus
21. 1969-03-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,396
• − Management: −$1,396
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $6,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,776
• Household income: $36,344
• Rent vs Own: 52.3% rent · 47.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 7% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 312.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-26 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-19 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 1997-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1969-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records